Panzers kills-losses ratio revisited.

Actually bought the book and started reading.
Stumbled upon something that really made my day:

Strategic Ressources

Mindful of the possibility of desperate shortages in materials critical to the war effort, in 1940 the British government moved to corner the market on what it considered its most precious strategic ressource, establishing a worldwide monopoly on tea. At the height of the war, Great Britain maintained stockpiles of about 150 million tons of the stuff, enough to brew up about 6 trillion cups. So critical was tea to the British war effort that only ammunition had a higher priority than tea for delivery to troops in action.

My comment refered to the vehicles mentioned in the report only. It is of course nonsense to claim victory for tanks you didn’t even see or that didn’t see you.

A start at least. Note the word ‘claim’. Now after you apply the routine 50% reduction you might just start to getting a bit nearer the truth

Acccording to who ? you ?, and I guess that in every german combat report we must apply the "mckenny mathematical formula to reduce claims ", give me a break man.

I repeated the word “claim” because is the one used by the authors, but my opinion is that the german figures are close to the truth and that truth are bigger than 50 %.

Thats right. What would I know. I even think the 25:1 ratio is wrong and the 30 Tigers lost in Africa did not knock out 750 Allied tanks.
The 50% reduction was applied across the board. That means if you want to say that SS superAbteilung had 75% of its kills confirmed then it follows that not so good SS Abteilung 000 only confirmed 25% of its kills.
Perhaps if you were told Zetterling says the same I might get my credibility back?

but my opinion is that the german figures are close to the truth and that truth are bigger than 50 %.

Opinion? well what can I say.
You have no idea what the total Allied losses are BUT you are sure they were big enough to allow a 5:1 kill ratio.

I know the German and Allied losses in The West but you are of the opinion they are not true.

ok.

The african figures seems high that is true and I dont think those Tigers killed 750 tanks.

But my opinion was quoting the selected extract of the book, and that extract are talking about the Eastern front wich is other thing, considering the technical superiority enjoyed by the Tiger the entire year 1943 the 11.1 kill- losses ratio seems plausible.

And note this:

Aplying the M.M.F.F.R.G.C.C ( Mckenny mathematical formula for reducing german combat claims) wich in this case will be the 50% of 10…is still 5.1 kill-losses ratio…the figure that you hate so much ¡¡¡¡ :cool:

It works.

I think you are both talking at cross purposes.
And I have to point out again, that total Axis vs. Allied losses are an absolute and completely useless figure when it comes to assessing the tiger tank.

Hmmm…the 503 claims come out at a staggering 28:1. Fasntasy land again.

I wonder why the cut off date of 10/1/44 was chosen for 506? Oh wait, it seems they lost 16 Tigers in the following week.
All the figures are direct lifts from Schneider by the way. Completely unsourced

Aplying the M.M.F.F.R.G.C.C ( Mckenny mathematical formula for reducing german combat claims) wich in this case will be the 50% of 10…is still 5.1 kill-losses ratio…the figure that you hate so much

I just watch all this bull about invincible Tigers. When I see the silly claims of 5:1 for Shermans I just show the figures that prove it is wrong. The reaction I get from the Tiger groupies is always interesting.

Anyone care to give me a couple of examples from Normandy where these super weapons wrecked havoc?

You are aware however, that even though defenders have a certain advantage, the circumstances in Normandy after establishing the beachhead were highly unfavorable for the german tanks (due to absolute air superiority of the Allied Air Forces).

The root of the problem is the endless tales of lone German tanks wiping out ranks of Allied tanks. The stories are everywhere and here we find stories about 5:1 kill rates as the norm.
Now this simply did not happen. At the risk of boring people to death I repeat in Normandy the loss rate overall was less than 2:1 in the German favour.
Whilst we can find isolated cases of individual tankers (from both sides) being able to dispose of several enemy tanks in one action this would be a rare event.
There are 2 cases of Tiger actions where the claims for destroyed Allied tanks are inflated. The first is Wittmann at Villers Bocage where it is impossible for Wittmann to have hit even half of the tanks credited to him.
Then we have Will Fey’s claim of 15 Shermans in August. Frankly it would seem that the only person who saw this great feat was Fey himself and it is worth commenting that he claims a total of 80 kills for the whole Normandy campaign.
For those who like a bit of research perhaps someone could find me ANY mention of Barkmann’s action in US accounts? I have not been able to find a single US source that even mentions it in passing.

2:1 of all types vs. all types or 2:1 of all tigers vs. all shermans?

I don’t want to sound a know-all but would it be safe to assume you do not know the totals of the other types of Allied tanks?

UK losses 1944-45 NW Europe

Type… 1944… 1945… total
Stuart M3… 210,… 47… …248
Stuart VI… 80… 105…185
M24 …2 … …2
Sherman…1739…973 … 2712
Cromwell…435…174 … 609
Challenger… 15…24…39
Comet…26… …26

There were 1800 German tanks in Normandy.
170 were Tigers.
There is no way to escape the total of all tanks lost showing a <2:1 exchange rate.

The argument then always shifts…
Examples:

  1. 'perhaps only the Tigers had huge scores? ’

Forget that this would mean no other German weapon system would them have any kills, the myth must be protected.

  1. ‘Most Tigers were destroyed by the crews, they dont count as kills’

If you believe all the self serving Unit accounts it would seem that no Tiger was ever destroyed by enemy action. I fail to see how it is more honourable to be running away and then set fire to your own perfectly good tank instead of fighting it out.

  1. ‘Tigers knocked out, recovered but that were not repaired do not count as kills.’

Yes I see the logic. Your tank is pounded to a pile of scrap. You drag it to some repair depot. The tank is not able to be fixed, you write it off and thus, by the stroke of a pen it is not a combat kill!

Heard it all before. The truth is that Tigers had no discernable effect in NW Europe. The Allies simply rolled over them. The TII made its debut in July in Normandy and it was not even noticed!

I understand that there now will be a lot of complicated calculations forwarded to ‘prove’ no Tiger ever got knocked out but it matters little to me. You cant escape the figures that PROVE the 5:1 Sherman ratio is a fabrication.

There simply were too few Tigers in Normandy to really impact the battle anyways…

Wasn’t less that 100 Tigers?

P.S.: Ha! I just read you post 170 were in Normandy…

But I think I’ve heard that only about 80 were there initially during the opening phase of the battle as the less exciting Panzer MkIVs and Jagdpanzers probably formed the bulk of German armor…

Is this the number of german tanks that were deployed there or the number destroyed?

Ahem, 2479 tank losses (Uk only, as your table indicates, I assume the US had their own fair share) in 1944, so let’s assume the tiger had the much disputed 5:1 kill ratio, this would mean, that if all 170 tigers were destroyed, they would have accounted for 850 killed UK tanks, this still leaves 1629 tanks destroyed by all other means, including the other german tanks.

Oh please, no one ever said, that a Tiger cannot be killed or anything like it, especially not me. This is really poor argumentation, if it is at all.
I even partially supported what I assumed was your initial point by saying, that such numbers matter little to nothing when you want to assess a fighting vehicle, as they can never cover the enormously varying circumstances that finally resulted in number in the kill statistic, such as false claims, abandoned vehicles, kills by mines, bad weather, lucky shots, good/bad commanders, attack, defense, whatever.

But besides that and to put it frankly, as far as I have read your posts up until now, you should never consider pursuing a career, that has anything to do with statistical analysis of data.

The totals are much the same thing. Few got out.

Ahem, 2479 tank losses (Uk only, as your table indicates, I assume the US had their own fair share) in 1944, so let’s assume the tiger had the much disputed 5:1 kill ratio, this would mean, that if all 170 tigers were destroyed, they would have accounted for 850 killed UK tanks,

[/quote]

Wishful thinking. This is the total loss for the UK for ALL of 1944 and all of 1945. The US Sherman loss for 1944-45 was 4300
You would have to factor in the German losses for September to December1944 as well as the other Tigers(130 at least) that came into play in 1944 alone. Considering that Stugs and JgdPzs were issued to Panzer Divisions in place of tanks and the role these vehicles played then you would have to add them into the totals. There is no way you can get 5;1.

this still leaves 1629 tanks destroyed by all other means, including the other german tanks.

That would give the 1600 Panthers (700) and PzIV’s(900), 550 Stug’s, 150 Jgd Pz. countless A/T guns, millions of mines, untold hand held infantry weapons ect ‘only’ 1600 tank kills between them. Actualy if you use the Normandy figures for the UK (instead of ALL of 1944 figures) it is 600 left for all the others.
Makes you wonder why the Germans bothered with such poor performing weapons

But besides that and to put it frankly, as far as I have read your posts up until now, you should never consider pursuing a career, that has anything to do with statistical analysis of data.

Yes I am a poor performer.
I know the actual loss figures.
I know the type of tank and the numbers lost.
I know the German quaterly returns and their loss figures.
I know that the 5:1 Sherman figure can not be supported by the numbers.
Statistics? Who cares. I am so ignorant that I can work out the actual losses whilst the real experts argue about the Panthers fantastic 5:1 kill ratio and the Tigers 10:1
And If I may be so bold I would suggest you consider posting on topics other than tank losses in 1944-45. You do not seem to have ANY figures at all-only opinions.

Well then give me the german tank losses in the western ToO til the end of 1945 as well as those of the US and do not constantly mix up numbers that have no inherent relation to prove your point. And I only added up those of the UK of 1944 btw. But even the comparison of those numbers would be pretty much useless.
Do you actually understand, that kill ratio (here for example tiger:sherman) means, that for each tiger killed by a sherman in an actual combat of those, 5 shermans would or have been killed by the tiger. And this doesn’t have to happen in a single engagement.
How on earth do you want to prove or falsify this with anything but a summarization of combat reports cross referenced with casuality reports (to prevent falsified claims) of specific encounters (and plenty of those).
The total number of lost vehicles is an utterly useless figure for such an analysis, especially if you are talking about a specific type of vehicle, such as the tiger in this thread.

For that matter, your comment

pretty much disqualifies you for any serious conversation on the topic.
Oh and btw. no one here said anything about an overall 5:1 kill ratio of german tanks vs. allied tanks in the west, except you, did you actually realize that? The topic of this thread is the tiger, both versions together made up less than 4 percent of the german armored forces during the war.

Actually it’s 4th grade mathematics

The really funny part is, that you might know some numbers but are completely inept in actually understanding them.

To give you an example of how your calculations and the derived conclusion would work out in a topic of more actual relevance:

It is impossible that car XY only uses 5 liters of fuel for 100 kilometers; I know the figures. All cars in america or the world, whereever, use on average 9.6 liters for 100 kilometers, so it is an absolute rediculous statement, that that car only uses 5 liters.

I am tired of doing your research for you. The figures are out there. I managed to find them. I am sure you can do the same.
I warn you though. The methods used to compile them differ. You will not get the same start date or a simple comparison of the raw figures. You will have to do a lot of compilation and sifting to get a rough comparison-even then you will get those who complain you did not make it simple enough for them - Happy hunting.

And I only added up those of the UK of 1944 btw.

The numbers for the UK are to the end of 1944 but he German totals are 3 months short of this and as all the Tigers were facing the UK forces there is no need to factor in US losses.

But even the comparison of those numbers would be pretty much useless.
Do you actually understand, that kill ratio (here for example tiger:sherman) means, that for each tiger killed by a sherman in an actual combat of those, 5 shermans would or have been killed by the tiger. And this doesn’t have to happen in a single engagement.

Yes I am unable to understand the subject.

I know nothing about:

The 45 Tiger 1’s in sSS PzAbt 101 that saw action from June 13th 1944.

sSS PzAbt 102 and their 45 Tiger I’s that began attacking on 9/7/44 are a mystery to me.

I never heard about sPzAbt.503 who had 33 Tiger 1’s and 12 Tiger II’s that entered the arena just before the first day of Goodwood on 18/7/44.

The 14 replacement TII’s issued to sPzAbt. 503 and the 14 issued to sSS PzAbt 101 also passed me by

(fkl 316) attached to Lehr and it’s 3 Tiger I’s and 5 TII’s? are a mere rumour.

The oddly marked Tiger found abandoned in Marle…I wonder what unknown Unit it belonged to?

The old dustbin coupla Tiger seen knocked out in the Archives of Lyon, where did it come from?

A knocked out Tiger II with the large number ‘6’ on it’s turret that seems to have no parent unit…

I wish I knew something about Tiger Units in Normandy!

I will make it simple for those promoting the 5:1 myth.
Give me an example from Normandy where the super Tigers got a 5:1 kill rate.

The total number of lost vehicles is an utterly useless figure for such an analysis, especially if you are talking about a specific type of vehicle, such as the tiger in this thread.

All the posts I have seen earlier claiming a 5:1 kiil ratio and you never thought to mention this then?

pretty much disqualifies you for any serious conversation on the topic

O wad some Power the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!

Oh and btw. no one here said anything about an overall 5:1 kill ratio of german tanks vs. allied tanks in the west, except you, did you actually realize that? The topic of this thread is the tiger, both versions together made up less than 4 percent of the german armored forces during the war.

Would that be 4% of the overall war total or 4% of the 1943 total onwards?
Have you any figures showing any totals at all?
What is the 1944 % or total?

It is impossible that car XY only uses 5 liters of fuel for 100 kilometers; I know the figures. All cars in america or the world, whereever, use on average 9.6 liters for 100 kilometers, so it is an absolute rediculous statement, that that car only uses 5 liters.

Yeah right.
The quick way to end this is for you to give me the figures you would use to get a 5:1 ratio.
We have a finite total of Allied losses. Therefore any 5:1 ratio for the Tiger leaves the other tanks (including the Panther) with very little and thus a kill rate in the Allies favour. The way the true believers get round this is to start making exceptions to what is a German loss whilst allowing no such exemptions for the Allies.

Is it possible for you to post the information used to make such a statement?
Exactly what method was used to make a claim a kill?
Surely you are not just giving us what you believe rather than what you know?
You obviously knew (didn’t everybody?)about the 50% reduction applied to kills in Russia so how did this effect the kill award system?
Can you tell me how this reduction was applied to individual Units and point me to a source that shows Units reducing their claims by 50% when compiling their statistics.

Lol. You do realize however, that neither all of the german tanks fought the British, nor did the British account for all the losses on the german side. This statement of yours only proves again that you simply have NO CLUE how to analyze data in a scientifically credible way. And the numbers don’t really matter here, even though they do not fit because they are not from the same period. I give you credit for the work you obviously put into the topic, but your entire argumentation string concerning this mathematical matter is completely flawed. Just focus on the history and leave the numbers to those who understand them.

I never said you would not be a welcomed guest in the conversation when it comes to the historic part, where you obviously have profound knowledge.

No place for examples in a statistical analysis. And to make myself clear. A kill ratio is a statistical analysis.

Honestly I don’t know which figure would be the result of a thorough investigation on the subject and it was never my concern. And I indeed mentioned it several times before.

The number was roughly the percentage of tigers build against all tanks build during the war. Your numbers indicate that in normandy, there were roughly 9.5%.

Again, a flawed argumentation concerning the subject, no matter what numbers you put in (1:1, 5:1, 1000:1). It matters little, how many tanks were lost total, it matters how many tanks were actually killed by other tanks, here specifically how many tigers killed how many shermans and vice versa. You already pointed out, there are many ways to get rid of a tank (Mines, Artillery, Infantry, Lack of Fuel, Breakdown, Aircraft, Surrender etc.). You are making the bold assumption in this argumentation, that the “other” ways to “kill” a tank account for the same percentage of tanks killed on both sides and even more specific for all different types of vehicles, which is a generalization that is plain and simply rediculous, especially in the western ToO.

And here is me thinking I made it plain I was on about Normandy. No matter. The Tiger Abteilung fought 95% of the time against UK forces so a comparison of UK losses to Tiger losses is entirely valid.
Obviously you missed an earlier link where you can see the Normandy losses but just for you I will paste it here.

according to WO 291/1186 in the ETO it was:

Mines 22.1%
AT guns 22.7%
Tanks 14.5%
SP Guns 24.4%
Bazooka 14.2%
Other 2.1%

This may be compared to a sample of 506 US First Army tanks lost (destroyed and damaged) between 6 June and 30 November 1944.

Mines 18.2%
AT/Tank guns 46.2%
Artillery 7.3%
Mortars 1.8%
Bazooka 13.6%
Other 12.9%

Now as far as American tank losses in Normandy go we have the following data from various reports:

In terms of the cause of loss, in June of 32 tanks examined, 18 were to ‘AT guns’ (56.25%), 9 to PF/PS (28.13%), 1 to mines (3.13%), and 1 to ‘artillery’ (3.13%). Unfortunately we do not know if the AT guns were just that or if they were mounted on armored vehicles of some type. However, we do know that 6 of those 18 were lost on D-Day, so cannot have been lost to anything other than the emplaced guns of the beach defenses.

In July, of 73 examined, 41.1% were lost to AT guns, 32.88% to PF/PS, 16.44% to mines, 4.11% to mines and 4.11% to unknown causes.

In August, of 130 examined, 55.38% were lost to AT guns, 18.46 to unknown causes, 13.08% to mines, 6.15% to artillery, 5.38% to PF/PS, and 1.54% to mortars.

Overall, losses to ‘AT guns’ appear to have been somewhere around 50% in Normandy (the monthly average is 50.91%) and were not far off the ‘norm’ of 46.2%.

From 6 June to 1 July (26 days), First Army wrote off 187 M4-75mm and 44 M5.
From 2 to 29 July (28 days), First Army wrote off 208 M4-75mm, 12 M4-76mm, 4 M4-105mm, and 67 M5.
From 30 July to 2 September (35 days), First Army wrote off 237 M4-75mm, 38 M4-76mm, 6 M4-105mm, and 69 M5.
From 3 to 28 September (26 days), First Army wrote off 123 M4-75mm, 33 M4-76mm, 10 M4-105mm, and 34 M5.
From 1 August to 2 September (33 days), Third Army wrote off 221 M4-75mm and 94 M5.
From 3 to 30 September (28 days), Third Army wrote off 48 M4-75mm, 61 M4-76mm, 2 M4-105mm, and 37 M5.
From 9 September to 5 October (27 days), Ninth Army wrote off 2 M4-75mm.

Thus roughly:
‘June’ 231
‘July’ 291
‘August’ 665
‘September’ 350
Total = 1,537

From the above we could presume that roughly 780 were due to tank and AT guns. Using the WO figures, then perhaps 223 were to ‘tank guns.’

For the British cause of loss in Normandy we have but a single document that appears relevant. That is O.R.S. 2 Report No. 12, Analysis of 75mm Sherman Tank Casualties Suffered Between 6th June and 10th June 1944. That document reports that of 45 Sherman tanks examined a total of 40 or 89% were lost to ‘AP shot,’ 4 or 9% to mines and 1 or 2% to unidentified causes.

British losses are given as:

June – 146
July – 231
August – 834
September - ?
Total = 1,211 (est. 1,568)

Unfortunately I have been unable to determine the British September totals, but given the overall similarity with the American figures it is probably not unreasonable to suppose that they were about 350 as well (if the proportionality with June-August were maintained, then it would be 357. If we presume that the above cause of loss was consistent for June and July, then about 336 were probably lost to ‘AP shot,’ which is probably an underestimate. If we presume that percentage applied throughout, then a total of 1,396 were possibly lost to ‘AP shot,’ which is probably an exaggeration. Using the total ‘AP shot’ weapons from WO 292/1186 (61.6) we would probably derive a more accurate estimate of 966. On the other hand, if we accept the figures from WO 291/1186 by type of AP weapon, then we can estimate that only 227 were lost to ‘tank guns’ and if that figure is applied to the Allied total loss, then perhaps only 450 were lost to ‘tank guns.’

Thus, we may estimate that the upper limit of Allied tanks lost to ‘AP shot’ (tanks, AT guns and assault guns) was perhaps 2,176, while probably the lower limit lost to ‘tank guns’ was about 450.

German losses were:

June – 1 Pz-IV(k), 124 Pz-IV(l), 80 Pz-V, 19 Pz-VI (L56) = 224
July – 149 Pz-IV(l), 125 Pz-V, 14 Pz-VI (L56) = 288
August – 49 Pz-IV(l), 41 Pz-V, 15 Pz-VI (L56) = 105
September – 12 Pz-IV(k), 581 Pz-IV, 540 Pz-V, 72 Pz-VI (L56), 23 Pz-VI (L70) = 1,228
Total = 1,845

.

This statement of yours only proves again that you simply have NO CLUE how to analyze data in a scientifically credible way.

I am handicapped by not being able to find any evidence of these kill ratios in any Allied War Diary. Those of a scientific bent can work out the figures to 6 decimal places and give us .75 of a tank loss but I prefer reality over this type of vodoo.

Perhaps this would be more to your liking. It is from BRL Memorandum Report No.798, APG 1954




It may suprise you but I skipped that chapter!

I give you credit for the work you obviously put into the topic, but your entire argumentation string concerning this mathematical matter is completely flawed. Just focus on the history and leave the numbers to those who understand them.

I hadn’t realised how little I knew.
Cut to the chase. I am telling you the 5:1 exchange rate for the Panther and (up to) 10:1 for the Tiger is bulls**t.
I cant be more specific than that.
My head is on the block for those who think they can prove otherwise.
I know they can’t but hey give it a shot.

We can see how good you are at challeging other peoples statements so lets try again with one of your claims:

Is it possible for you to post the information used to make such a statement?
Exactly what method was used to make a claim a kill?
Surely you are not just giving us what you believe rather than what you know?
You obviously knew (didn’t everybody?)about the 50% reduction applied to kills in Russia so how did this effect the kill award system?
Can you tell me how this reduction was applied to individual Units and point me to a source that shows Units reducing their claims by 50% when compiling their statistics.

I await your reply with interest.

It is only if you don’t use the “nothing left for the other tanks” argument with the totals. Still very unprecise however, but let’s argument in this model.

I’ll take that 800, close to the more than 50 % average for AT losses of all types vs. Germans.

so 71 killed tigers during the time

as I don’t know the statistics for the tiger, I’ll have to make some assumptions based on your data. Feel free to comment on it.

Mines didn’t apply so much for the tigers, as they were the defender. It is
nevertheless possible, that a tank might have hit one in a counterattack on a town or sth like it. I will cut the mine damage to 1/10 of your figure, roughly 2 percent. However the allies had absolute air superiority and while it was later figured out that the actual damage was less than expect a lot of tanks were damaged or even abandoned undamaged during the attacks.

so I’ll take the roughly 20 % of the allied mine casualties for mines and air attacks.

~ 14

I assume these other causes are lack of fuel, breakdowns etc.
The tiger was much more prone to breakdowns and the germans had clearly a lack of supplies, so the number would increase from the average 6 from your 2 datasets to 15%

~ 11

and now the really interesting part. The Tiger was definatly hard to kill for the allied 75 mm gun and they didn’t use the big AA guns, so I’ll lower the figure for AT kills to let’s say 30%.

~ 21

The rest would be artillery (most of it i guess), mortars, infantery w. bazooka etc.

so we have 21 dead tigers killed by all types of british AT capacity, including shermans. It is impossible to tell how many were killed by actual AT guns, SP AT guns or tanks without more detailed insight to data and we have less than 100% shermans in the british armored formations, but to simplify I’ll stick with the totals. So let’s say 1/3 of the kills are pure AT/SPAT gun kills and 2/3 are tank kills, that would leave us with 14 killed tigers by the tanks in the british arsenal.

Let’s take 50:50 ratio for the germans between at/spat and tanks, as they were more often defending than attacking.
So we have 400 british tanks left which were killed by german tanks of all sorts.
You really think it is impossible, that of those 400 tanks, 140 were killed by 170 tigers in the ToO, which would result in the 10:1 kill ratio ??? Some of them never saw combat, some of them killed more, even in a row, but that doesn’t matter.

I still believe you completely misunderstood the kill ratio thing. It doesn’t mean that every german tiger tank ever fielded killed 10 or more tanks in a row, gungho style. It means, that for every tiger killed by shermans, X Shermans were killed by tigers. What you can derive from this statistc is that you should have a significant numerical advantage, when you are attacking a group of tigers with a group of shermans in an otherwise “fair” encounter.

It is nevertheless remarkable, that total german tank losses were only half or even less the number than those of the allied.

I admit, that my experience on the german kill claim topic is more based in aviation, where they used both other pilots and camera footage to confirm claims. Take this as a quickshot and ignore it.