I have to check out the penetration ability of 12.7 mm browning rounds on the top deck of a Tiger, but I am pretty much agreed, with everything else. To explain where I am coming from, for sure the Luftwaffe airdefence and strike capability was in a mess and was incapable of doing anything substantial either to attack the Allied military in France or to offer top cover to their own forces and that was the reality of the situation 1944, but the planing and preparation for Overlord had started a long time before June 1944 and whilst it so happened that the Luftwaffe was a basket case as regards air operations in France, it might not have turned out that way, e.g. Hitler might have been killed in a car crash and been replaced by somebody far more suitable to the environment that Germany found herself in the latter part of the War. As for heavy and medium Allied bombers, whilst they certainly had a part to play, once the Nazi forces tangled with Allied forces or even got substantially close to them, it would have been very difficult to take out the German armor without inflicting substantial friendly fire loses on the Allied units. As for the beaches, in my conception of such a defense of France by a Germany with a better equipped Luftwaffe with Me-262s, the Coastal defenses would be held as long as possible by the fortress troops and the tanks would be held back in the countryside to engage Allied forces that had broken through the coastal defenses, since the German AFVs would not be in line of sight of the Allied battleships, such seaborne heavy artillery would be dependent upon air and ground spotters for firecontrol, a weakness against which it should have been possible to employ various counter measures. As you said “Hitler was probably our best asset”.
Best and Warm Regards
Adrian Wainer