Absolutely correct; Hitler was his own worst enemy. I believe that he lost the war on September 3, 1939, the day France and England declared war on Germany. It was Hitler’s reaction to this that was fatal, and demonstrated his utter lack of understanding of the world situation and the real strength of his potential enemies. His reaction was to issue Operational Order No. 2 For The Conduct Of The War, which placed German industry on a ‘war footing’ in breadth but not in depth. By this, I
mean he ordered all war-capable industry to start production, but not to
go all out. No 24-hr. production. He wanted to keep to normal 8-hr. daily production schedules, so as to ‘not alarm the civilian population’. Strange
sentiment for someone who wanted to conquer the world. ‘Total’ war would not begin until after Stalingrad, when it was too late. How many more planes, tanks, guns and submarines would he have had if he had
given the proper order?
Had he given the correct order, he probably would have had several hundred more aircraft for the Battle Of Britain, which would have overwhelmed the RAF. With air superiority, they could have conducted several fake invasion exercises, drawing the Royal Navy into the Channel, where the Luftwaffe could sink them. Once the Royal Navy was
crippled, Operation Sea Lion could begin. By 1941, Hitler would have had several thousand more tanks for Operation Barbarossa. With an extra Panzer Army allocated to Von Runstedt in Army Group South, Guderian wouldn’t have had to come to his rescue at Kiev. The Battle Of Smolensk was the first indicator that the Germans did not have the strength to defeat Russia. If Guderian’s 2nd Panzer Army had stayed in place on the Moscow highway, Moscow would have fallen by the end of September. While this in itself would not have won the war, it would have wiped out a large proportion of Soviet industrial might, and brought Germany to at least parity in the war. In the spring of '42, Army Group Center likely would have gotten within bomber range of Chelyabinsk, the famous ‘Tankograd’. Bombing Chelyabinsk and the nearby southern Ural cities would have been disasterous for the Russians. The war in Russia would probably end in the spring of '43.
Meanwhile, the best America could do was North Africa. With Britain out of the war, the Italian Navy would control the Mediterranean, and Rommel could be heavily reinforced. Germany would have already taken the Middle East oil fields by this time. America wouldn’t be ready for invading Europe before 1944, giving Germany time to consolidate and move forces
west to France and England.
I suppose the best chance for America was to hold onto northwest Africa, and use B29s to drop the Bomb.