A modern NATO ally is in the midst of an old school, throw-back coup…
Thoughts?
Apparently the coup has been quashed and it’s over with nearly 200 people dead…
I was reading about it last evening, my thought was that the balance of power in the entire region would be changed, though in what way would not be evident at first. It did seem that things would become much less stable, and in truth that may yet happen despite the coup failing. To be certain, I do not approve of arms we supplied to Turkey being used in such a manner. The next few days will be crucial to see what changes occur there, and how those changes will affect events in the region.
Turkey is not really our friend. Remember how he refused letting US troops pass through Turkey at the beginning of the war against Iraq? And for several years Erdogan has let all kinds of ISIS fighters pass through Turkey and he has been reaping the profits of selling ISIS oil. I read a story today that suggested that he staged the coup himself.
It seems a bit fishy when: A. He flies back into Turkey at a time when the military coup is going on. (Wouldn’t you want to wait a bit until you are sure your guys have control)? B. Armed soldiers are surrendering to unarmed civilians. C. He is now demanding that his former comrade who is here in the US be returned to Turkey. D. He is jubilant that he can now purge the country of those in the Judiciary and the Military who oppose him. Turkey is rapidly becoming an Islamist state and such a country inside of NATO is not a good thing.
Whether this was all a set-up by Erdogan to facilitate a purge of “hostile” elements in the Army and judiciary I would somewhat doubt. I am quite old enough to remember a time when “coup in Turkey” was fairly small news - it is something we all expected to happen from time to time. The coup-proneness of the Turkish Army would make such a step very, very risky, as suspicion towards the civilian regime has, up to now, been a given in that Army. A sort of “prophylactic coup” would in the circumstances be very risky, with the threat that the bulk of the Army might take control of the situation and roll in to produce a real coup. Playing with fire, I think.
This coup has clearly failed. Two reasons - first, the coup had an inadequate base in the armed forces. This must be qualified by saying that the coupsters did manage to mobilise a significant portion of the Army and (notably) the Air Force, firing real ammunition and dropping real bombs. The second reason ? Well, the last Turkish coup predated the Internet and social media. In the old days, seizing the national broadcasting stations and main newspapers was enough to deliver control of public information. The recent lot duly followed the old coup recipe and seized the public media outlets. However, they do not seem to have allowed for the reach of social media which allowed Erdogan and company to mobilize rapid civil opposition to the coup, and it is a generally recognized truth that soldiers of a conscript army are not enthusiastic about shooting their own people. A successful coup depends on speed and a confused civilian population not actually on the streets to oppose the soldiers. Is such an old-style coup still possible in a relatively-advanced country with good social media coverage (at least in key centres of power) ? Something for future coup-plotters to ponder … Yours from the Presidential Palace, JR.
What worried me more was the support for Turkey to join the EU even with Erdogans take over of opposition media and newspapers (before the coup) countries still supported Turkey, quashing people who are against his rule (arresting and jailing them on charges as flimsy as ‘not towing the official government line’), changes in the constitution to give him more power.
The fact he wants Turkey to join the EU but not to comply with EU rules or laws says much about him. I could very well believe he had a hand in instigating the coup.
It seems from where I sit that the majority of the Turkish people seem to want an Islamist state with a strongman such as Erdogan. When “the people” did no rise up and support the coup, it was truly doomed. The secular state envisioned by Ataturk is no more.
As to the prospects of Turkey achieving EU accession - recent events there should mean that (at least for my lifetime) pigs are more likely to fly. Already, there was considerable opposition to Turkish accession within the existing Member States and their political élites, ranging from questions regarding the weighted influence of such a populous country following admission to the Community’s institutions, to doubts as to the appropriateness of extending the Union’s territory into unstable Asia Minor, to fears of the implications for immigration. The addition of a recent military coup (no EU Member States has experienced such a thing since their accession), and the manner in which President Erdogan and his clique are handling the aftermath, give arsenals of additional political ammunition to slow accession negotiations to an effective stop.
I am still less than convinced that Erdogan would take the chance of precipitating a coup d’état to give him an excuse to purge that system of his (possible) opponents. However, the remarkable slow-motion purge currently under way certainly suggests that they had a definite plan to respond to such a contingency. This is not surprising. While it may now seem a bit in the past, Turkey does have an extensive history of Army coups. Several of these were carried out by relatively small elements of the Armed Forces and their commands, which subsequently drew support from the Armed Forces in general. These coups did not depend on any particular measure of public support; the economically-privileged troops were the important element. That, and speed of execution that would make public response largely irrelevant. The main miscalculation of the recent military insurgents was failure to allow for the new factor of social media which has, so to speak, proved to be a “game changer” by allowing a leader with substantial popular support to fight back with public opinion and mobilization. This upset the timetable for a successful coup, something that future military rebels will have to consider carefully.
But, nevertheless … the caution on the part of Erdogan in keeping his civilian supporters on the alert to return to the streets is, on his part, sensible. The very general semi-purge of the Army, the civil service and the judiciary may effectively disable his opponents - at least for now. However, such a general attack on Ataturk’s secular state will confirm the enmity of much of the remaining civil and military administrative class towards their Erdoganist/Islamist antagonists. As so much of Turkey’s ruling and administrative apparatus must remain in the hands of those who have run it for generations (unless it is to fall apart completely), further instability and, perhaps, another more determined coup attempt, beckon. More to say … but I have gone on long enough for now. Yours from the Blue Mosque, JR.
It’s very complex with neither side exactly being the standard bearer of Western democracy. But one of the key reasons it was said the coup failed was that the plotters did not ever seem to totally be in control - or at least plausibly close to it. Social media influenced the battle and allowed Erdogan to rally his supporters, and perhaps it’s not enough for coup plotters to seize radio and TV stations anymore, there is speculation that social media has made coups extraordinary difficult. Also, Turkish conscripts may have been enthusiastic for a gov’t change, but no so enthusiastic to give out the “whiff of grapeshot” and shoot civilians. Some commentators though the coup was a sure thing and a very close run affair, but it collapsed due to the inability of the plotters to rally the military quickly to their side. Most are fence sitters, it’s human nature. Had the perception of the coup been more one of inevitability, there is little doubt most of the military and civilian population would have supported it…
Or plotters had no real support among population. Just a few observations why this coup may heppand right now.
http://journal-neo.org/2016/07/18/behind-the-cia-desperate-turkey-coup-attempt/
This was a network of officers inside the Army loyal to the Fetullah Gülen Movement. Gülen is a 100% CIA controlled asset. He even lives since years in exile in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania having gotten safe passage and a green card by former top CIA people like Graham Fuller and the former US Ambassador to Ankara.
Gülen has been a decades-long mad project of the CIA to weaponize political Islam as an instrument of regime change. Recall that in 2013 there were mass protests against Erdogan in Istanbul and elsewhere. That was when Gülen, who previously had made a deal with Erdogan’s AK Party, broke and criticized Erdogan as a tyrant in the Gülen-controlled media such as Zaman. Since then Erdogan has been moving to root out his internal most dangerous adversary, Gülen and friends, including raids on Zaman and other Gülen-controlled media. This is not about a battle between the White Knight and Evil Knievel. It is about power pure in Turkish politics. If you are interested in the details of the Gülen CIA project I urge readers to look in my book, The Lost Hegemon (German: Amerikas Heilige Krieg).
Q: Do you think these events in Turkey could lead to civil war, as interpreted by some commentators? WE: I doubt that. The Gülen Movement in the past two years has been severely reduced in influence by Erdogan and his head of intelligence—purges etc. The traditional so-called Ataturk Army as State Guardian is long gone …since the 1980s.
What is interesting to watch now will be the foreign policy of Erdogan: Rapprochement with Russia, reopening talks on the Russia Turkish Stream gas pipeline to the Greek border. The simultaneous Erdogan rapprochement with Netanyahu. And most critical, Erdogan’s apparent agreement, part of Putin’s demands for resumption of ties, that Turkey cease efforts to topple Assad by covertly backing DAESH or other terrorists in Syria and training them in Turkey, selling their oil on the black market. This is a huge geopolitical defeat for Obama, probably the most incompetent President in American history (even though he has some serious competition for the title from George W. Bush and Clinton).
Q: Do you believe that in this way Erdogan indeed be overthrown? WE: Not likely as it now looks. Even in the early hours when Erdogan was able to tell media that it was a Gülen coup try, I was convinced Gülen would fail. Today, July 16, it seems he has failed. The CIA has egg on its face and Obama and NATO try to cover it up by their “warm embrace of the democratically elected Erdogan (sic!).” They cared not that in Ukraine when the CIA ran the Maidan Square coup in February 2014, that Viktor Yanukovic was the “democratically elected president of Ukraine.” Look at the mess Washington made there in their effort to provoke a split between Russia and the EU.
I know it sounds controversal - the anti-Erdogan coupe was a part of heopolitical battle against Russian-Tuirkish relations. But there is couple of events that makes such a cource more plausible. First - the seems the russian intelligence service ( i/e Putin himself) has warned the Erdogan about the incoming coup just few hours before the beginning. What let the Erdogan the critical time for counter-manipulations against plotters. Anothe one fact -the Erdogan himseld immediatelly has blamed US military official in support for plotters. Which make me to think that last turkish coup has been organized but the same external powers, that has succesfully made the coup in Egypt and Ukraine.
P.S. i just shoked by the Putin’s behaviour- just yeasterday the all mass media blame the Turkey and personally Erdogan as the main " russian enemy" on the region, after the Su-24 downed. They blame turkey in direct suppot of ISIS as well. But suddenly, the Putin saves the Erdogan from american-orchestred plot . What the policy is a bitch? This remind me pre-war 1939(((((