Firebombing of japanese cities WW2

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#1

Hi-

I was wondering how many of you agree or support the airforce’s decision to firebomb almost all Japanese cities in 1945. The March 1945 raid over Tokyo resulted in 100,000 Japanese civilians dead and left 1,000,000 homeless.

According to one account “the M-69 (napalm firebombs) realeased 100-foot streams of fire upon detonating, and sent flames rampaging through densely packed wooden homes. Superheated air created a wind that sucked victims into the flames and fed the twisting infernos. Asphalt boiled in the 1,800 degree heat. With much of the fighting age male population at the war front, women, children, and the elderly struggled in vain to battle the flames or flee” One of General McArthur aides called it “one of the most ruthless and barbaric killings of noncombatants in all of history.” Even General Le May, the instigator of the bombings quoted “there are no inocent civilians, so it doesn’t bother me so much to be killing innocent bystanders”. He also commented on the fact that had the US lost the war, he fully expected to be tried as a war criminal.

Tokyo wasn’t the only city to suffer such fate. Kobe, Yokohama, Osaka and many more were subjected to the same punishment as Tokyo, with casulaty rates.

As far as attitudes about the Japanese were concerned, look at propaganda photos of the era portraying Tojo or the typical Japanese soldier. Wikipedia encyclodedia states " Japanese were viewed as subhuman or evolutionarily inferior" This is not much different than Nazi-Germany’s view of Jewish, Slavic, and Roma people as “untermensch” which translates to under-human (or subhuman semantically). Perhaps, racism had some part in the bombings??

Typical counterarguments include, Japanese atrocities against the Chinese, Koreans and Filipinos, and of course the brutal mistreatment of US POW’s of the Japanese during the war. The Japanese are certain responsible for these attrocities, however it’s interesting to note that while 37% of US soldiers interned died in captivity, only 11% of US civilians captured perished. While 11% is still high, there’s not sufficient evidence that this was directly due to mistreatment. Japanese troops were often short of medical supplies and had trouble feeding their own troops. But, in the case of military POW, Japanese held to the Bushido code which held that surrender was disgraceful and that prisoners lost the right to be treated humanely. Was Pearl Harbor (a suprise attack on a military target) or the internment of US MILITARY justified in seeking revenge against Japanese women, children, and the elderly in possibly the most brutal fashion?

Briefly before finishing, it should be noted that American submarines waged unrestricted warfare against Japanese merchant vessels which had been outlawed by the 1930 treaty of London (the US signed). This is not meant to support or discredit either the US or Japan, but merely to expose the truth of World War 2, which is often irresponsibly shrouded in bias. I appreciate anyone who wishes to debate the issue, but please do not use Japan’s war against China, the Philipines etc…as an argument. This is regarding America at War with Japan.

America has also done some not so nice things in other Asian nations…read up on the Philippine-American War 1899-1913 which is a real eye opener. Also mention of Unit 731 vivisection of captured B-29 pilots will be countered by the Tuskegee syphilis study on African-Americans beginning in 1932.

#2

Hi.

To me every type of bombardment of civil targets is a war crime.

Yours

tom!

#3

Simple. Bombardment of defended targets is permitted by the Hague convention (and the Japanese cities were clearly defended). Furthermore, because of the extremely highly decentralised nature of Japanese industry (it was far from unusual for people to keep machine tools in their own homes, running a small business from home) coupled with the way in which society was militarised - for example the legions of civilians who were trained to launch Banzai charges against invaders armed only with bamboo spears it is easy to argue that there was no such thing as a civilian target in Japan in 1944 or 45.

#4

I can see all points of view here. Was there a reason for switching from high altitude precision bombing to low altitude fire bombing?

Qwertty, welcome aboard the Forum. A top tip for the future though is to break your post up into paragraphs. It makes it easier for old eyes like mine to read. I have taken the liberty of doing this for you this time.

Cracking first post though and this Forum can certainly do with another thoughtful poster.

Cheers

F-F

#5

And I might add that he break up separate points into separate thread topics. Indeed, there was much US propaganda with racist overtones towards the Japanese. But of course, the US propaganda against Germany also used the same fundamental tenets of racism such as stereotyping and highlighting negative cultural perceptions. So, I highly doubt one can attribute the ruthless bombing campaigns to simple racist dehumanization. The US also savagely bombed German cities of blond haired, blue eyed peoples. And BTW, that racism went both-ways, as the Japanese told their civilians that US Marines/soldiers were cannibalistic barbarians, often leading to mass suicides on Saipan and Okinawa…

And to answer your question Firefly, I believe the US bombing strategy changed because the B-29 squadrons had difficulty with the high altitude winds over Japan, which not only hindered their bombing success, but made it possible for the weakened Japanese Air force to mount a defense. I believe (and this is all from memory, so I could be wrong) that US bombers had to fight savage high altitude cross winds that slowed their air-speeds significantly…

#6

Yes, the winds.

The high altitude winds were a type of jet stream that blew out of Siberia at 250 mph. Hit from the side, the bombers would skid sideways, As a tail wind, the planes flew too fast for the Norden bombsights to work. As a headwind, the plane slowed and became a sitting duck for AA.

The first B-29 raid from China on June 15th, 1944, was made against steel mills in Kyushu. Sixty planes flying at 30,000 feet reached the target, but only one bomb hit the plant. More bombs landed on rice paddies than on steel furnaces, and many planes were lost.

It was at this point that Gen. Hap Arnold dispatched Gen. Curtis Lemay to the Pacific. With the capture of Saipan, Curtis moved the B-29 operation to the Marianas. His first attempt, employing Air Force doctrine of high altitude bombing, failed.

Lemay decided to turn doctrine on its head, and go in low at night. In the darkness, there would be no precision and he would bomb indiscriminately.
He also guessed that the Japanese had little anti-aircraft coverage between three and ten thousand feet. He also figured that Japanese fighters would not rise to meet him in the dark, so he stripped the Superforts of guns, ammo., and gunners, enabling each plane to carry 2,700 pounds of extra napalm.

To test his theories, he sent his bombers to Tokyo on March 9th, 1945. Everyone thought he was crazy and that he had issued his crews a death sentence. From three islands in the Marianas - Guam, Saipan, and Tinian - 334 B-29s formed parallel streams 400 miles long.

Sixteen square miles of Tokyo burned to the ground that night, killing some 100,000 people. Lemay had been right.

Most of this information is from James Bradley’s Flyboys.

JT

#7

Have to agree with pdf27 on this one. However the losses suffered is sad. Then again if you dont like getting bombed stop starting wars.

#8

The jetstream was the major reason for the initial switch to low altitudes. Part of the reason for staying down low was simply that the B-29 was a very high performance aircraft and the Japanese had a hard enough time intercepting it by day. That pretty much rendered the protection offered by extra altitude irrelevant by night.

#9

Total war means total war.

If a civilian area is specifically excluded from bombing then it won’t take long for that area to be used as barracks or for light industry etc using the civilians as cover.

Civilians were an integral part of the war machine releasing men to fight and keeping industry working.

There can’t be a military target any where that doesn’t have a cluster of civilians working near by or in it so every bomb dropped is a war crime if you state armchair philosophy like “To me every type of bombardment of civil targets is a war crime.”

#10

That chain of thought leads logically and irrevocably to the conclusion that all war is a crime. While that may have some merit, unfortunately the only people willing to accept law as a constraint on their actions are the very people least likely to cause trouble in the first place. The net result is that the lunatics prosper while the rest of the world gets screwed.

#11

Bradley’s book has all sorts of disturbing and graphic information. I can’t access in now since I’m on the road, but Bradley also indicates that part of the reason for the firestorm was the tinderbox that was Japanese housing, which often used light wood and paper. Many elements came together to make it the “perfect firestorm,” and it was indeed hell on earth for those unfortunate Japanese civilians. And this is no doubt deeply saddening and regretful. But had the shoe been on the other proverbial foot, I’ve no doubt the Japanese Imperial high command would have hesitated one second to reduce LA or San Francisco…

#12

Yes, for the Tokyo raid and subsequent raids it was figured a higher mix of incendaries would be more effective. While it is easy to criticize the conduct of the war today, remember it was truly a battle of survival. Make no mistake, the Japanese did target civilians and to preclude China in this thread is wrong, because it was the ‘China Incident’ which indirectly led to the fire bombing of Tokyo.

Regards to all,
Digger.

#13

Thanks qwertty, very interesting post
And welcome to the our hot company.
I 'm fully agree with you and strongly sure that the Allies firestorm tactic in Japane and Germany was the “cruel prelude” for the more worst action - Atomic bombing of Japane.(As you know the total number of victims of a-bombing is about 500 000 today(!!!)
Certainly Japanes atrocities in South Asia were the unhuman, but this is not the argument to kill the civilians using the worst method then even nazi did.

Cheers comrades :wink:

#14

Chevan, I am really glad the Allies won the war so you can live in your revisionist paradise. To further gladden your heart, the bombing of German cities helped prevent the eradication of the Soviet Union, the genocide and enslavement of it’s people.

Regards to all,
Digger.

#15

arnob, this sounds like the terrorist ideology -“civilians as cover”.
The contemporary terrorist also don’t separate the soldiers and civils peoples.
In its essence, the bombardment of Japanese was a big terrorist attack on the state level. One state (US) made a attack the city of another state (Japane) for its political purposes. This attacks hadn’t much military loses for the Japane and it did not accelerate its capitulation.
In spring 1945 Japane already lose the war it was absolutly clear. The sea and air blocade of Japane islands did its work enough good(Japane losed practicaly all its war and trade fleet and hadn’t the resource to continie the war at least to the November of 1945).
So i don’t belive in any “arguments” which justify the bombing the Japane cities in 1945.

#16

Digger, yourself understand what you wrote?
How the cruel burning of practicaly broken Germany in 1944-45 could help to prevent the eradication of the Soviet Union?

#17

The first truly effective firestorm (on Hamburg) was in Summer 1943, at which point Stalin was screaming for a “second” front as fast as possible due to the threat the Soviet Union was under. Raids after that were merely extensions of the same policy - one I would note that the Germans first adopted at many years before, with the destruction of Guernica being an early symptom.
Incidentally, had the RAF been able to repeat Hamburg a few times there were a number of high-ranking Nazis who thought it would have knocked Germany out of the war. Sadly, they were unable to do so.

#18

Hi tom, nice to see germans are here
I don’t agree with you
Not any bombardment of civil targets(cities) is a war crime.
As example Stalingrad was bombed out to the crushed stone, but it was a cruel war action not the war crime becouse there were the many of soviet troops and it was the ruthles the battle for the survival.
Also Berlin was a legitime target - it was the capital of Germany and the place of german high command stuff.
London, Moscow were also a legitime targets on my mind, becouse it was a war reason.
But as example in Dresden was a quite different situation. The official target was the realway station which was so little damaged than bagan to work on full power already next day.
Why ? Becouse most of the bombs were dropped on the centre of city ( where were a handrets thousands of refuges).
Indeed,the british sources ( at least the memours of Artur Harris) confirmed that the real terget was the centre of the city.
So what was the war effect of distraction of Dresden?
How was much it help for Red Army to captured the city? It was Zero help.
Thus the bombing of Dresden was the real matter of International Military tribunal in Nurenberg, becouse unsensless distraction of villiges and cities were on definition the war crime.
I’m not pity for the germans in 1945, understand me correctly.
One of my grandfather died in 1942 in front. And i know the must worst of its criminals nazi did in Eastern front in Russia , Ukrain and Poland.
But i good imagine that strategic bombers (like and strategic rockets) are the wearpon of genocide of civilians.
This wearpon is extremaly weak against defence military objects, but deadly for the cities.

#19

“Effective firestorm in Hamburg”…?
What do you mean as effective pdf?
Yes it was murdered at least 50 000 civilians(And Hoebbels propoganda immediatly used it) , but the sea docks were the less damaged and already through month the Hamburg’s port was fully reconstructed.
Moreover the allies loses were a very big ( as i remember 12%) and allies not bombed Humburg again 4 month ( for this the war indastry was ful reconstracted).
In common view ,pdf, i seriously don’t understand the 'strategic bombing" tactic of allies.

by the way and british historian John Fuller in work( The Second World War 1939-1945. A Strategical and Tactical History. — London, 1948) wrote

To destroy with the aid of those existed then means entire or large part of the German defense industry was clearly impossible. It was considered that the military plants of Germany were placed in the territory into 130 sq. miles and to subject to their bombardments even for several years it would require, possibly, such astronomical quantity of aircraft, that all industrial resources of England would not make it possible to build them.
This is why one ought not to have undertaken the attempt, which, however, was made. If Churchill thought strategically, instead of thinking about the devastation, then it would become clear that the objects of bombardments had to be not industrial enterprises themselves, but their energy sources, i.e., coal and oil. If these sources steadily were weakened, then in the final analysis German industry to 90% was stopped. Against this there were only two possible objections. The first consisted in the fact that carbon mines is difficult to destroy, and the second - that the oil is produced in few and, therefore, strongly protected points; therefore films on them would dear .The first difficulty, however, it was not more than that being seeming. If we continuously bombard the railroads, which lead into the carbon regions of the ruhr and saar (each roads they were close purposes), then coal could not be exported.
However, none of these arguments, probably, was not discussed also for that simple reason, that the destruction of industry was only the part of the general plan of the devastation of Germany and terrorization of its citizen. In any case, this is confirmed by the measures, which up to the spring 1944 can be distributed to two stages: 1) economic offensive, 2) moral offensive. The first stage can be divided into two periods. The time from May 1940 until March 1942 is characterized as the period of the so-called “precise” bombardments, which were being produced mainly at night by English aviation.
In the period from August 1942 until March 1944 American aviation accomplished the daylight raids on the German plants, important in strategic sense. In the first period, in spite of the destruction, caused to the populated regions, action on the German production of armament was insignificant. Production not only was not reduced, but, on the contrary, it grew by rapid rates.
In the report of American administration for the study of the results of strategic bombings in the division “European war” is said:
“since German economy on the elongation of the larger part of the war find in the state of far from complete mobilization, then the industry of Germany without a special effort maintained the air raids”.
The experience of Germans showed, it is spoken in the report, "that whatever was the system of the objects of bombardment, not one important branch of industry was render inoperableed by single film. Was required numerous films ".

Furthermore, since Germany and occupied by it the country exceeded Great Britain on the area 12 times, available in Great Britain into 1940 - 1942 of air facilities was insufficient in order to be achieved the perceptible results. This period was the useless expenditure of forces, it was “uneconomical” and was not the period of “strategic” bombardments.

The second period began from the arrival into Europe of the air forces OF THE USA. The command of American aviation considered that “important enterprises in some fields of industry and economy are the most advantageous attack targets in the economy of enemy”, and it assumed that “for the precise defeat of these objects the films should be produced with day”.
In spite of this, as it communicates in the report, the “films”, which were being carried out by American air forces “during 1942 and first halves of 1943, they did not give significant results”.
During January 1943, when were developed these barren actions, at the conference in Casablanca before the Anglo-American strategic air forces were set the following purposes: “destruction and the disorder of German military, industrial and economic system and the undermining of the moral spirit of German people to such an extent, when his capability for armed resistance is finally weakened”. During June these solutions began to be realized; in this case instead of the submarine bases as the objects the plants of the German aircraft industry were indicated.
The first film was perfected to the ball bearing plants in Schweinfurt. It followed an entire series of the films, during which to these plants were discarded 12 thousand t of bombs. But with the film on 14 October American losses were so big , that further bombardments of Schweinfurt were postponed for four months, during which the plants were restored so, that, as it was said in the report, it remained “none it was indicative that the films in the enterprises of ball bearing industry noticeably influenced this important branch of defense economy”.
The daylight raids on the distance, which exceeded the radius of action of escort fighters, were sharply limited after this. So it was prior to the arrival during December of aircraft R -51 “mustang” - destroyers with the long range of action. Then again send to the daylight raids, and into the last week of February of 1944 began the strongest bombardments of German aircraft plants. Nevertheless in the report it is said: "for a long time production was not reduced. On the contrary, during only 1944 German air forces, as it communicated, obtained 39 807 aircraft of all types. In 1939 were produced 8295 aircraft, while in 1942. - 15 596, in this case then plants underwent no films…
During March, the month after the strongest film, the entering of aircraft in the part became above, than during January, and it continued to grow… Restoration occurred almost immediately after plants underwent destruction ".
The failure of attempts to blow up the industry of Germany by bombardments required a change in the tactics. Thus far the escort aircraft only covered bombers. Now by them it was ordered by itself provoke German destroyers and tie by it battle at the first opportunity. As a result of the loss of German fighter aircraft and fighter pilots they began continuously to grow, and the resistance of German air forces was lowered to the spring 1944. However, in the report it is indicated that “in the summer of 1944 the production of destroyers in Germany continued to rise and during September it reached the highest number - 4375 aircraft”.
About the fact that the offensives of strategic bombardment aviation for three years proved to be completely barren, testifies senator Kilgor in his “report about the state of the German of production” comprised on the basis “the official report of the German ministry of armaments and defense industry for 1944 g.”.
Following a few endurances from the report speak they themselves for itself: "in the document it is graphically shown that, in spite of the bombardments of allies, Germany was able to restore and to enlarge plants and to increase the release of the defense production to the final crushing defeat of German armies. German industry never lost its enormous capability for restoration ".
“report shows that in 1944 in Germany worried to death by war was produced 3 times more armor combat vehicles, than in 1942 g.”.
“in 1944 the production of bomber- destroyers in Germany into 3 and the more of times exceeded level 1942 g.”
“in 1944 of night fighters it was produced 8 times more than in 1942 g.”.
"in 1944 in Germany defense economy grew not only in comparison with the previous years; on certain I see productions it was noted an increase of the release in the last block of 1944 in comparison with the first quarter of the same year ".

So dear pdf, i see the serious reason to refute your “effective” Hamburg firestorm.

#20

I would like to thank you all for your replies.

The point I was trying to make was that the firebombings of Tokyo and pretty much most other Japanese cities (Osaka, Yokohama etc…) was intended as both “strategic bombing of industries” and “terror bombings” of the Japanese civilian population. I don’t think Japanese atrocities commited by the Japanese military in China, the Piillipines, Korea etc… really merits wanton destruction of innocent Japanese women, children, and old men by the USAF. Japanese cities were constructed of flimsy wood and paper (these are effective safety measures against Japanese earthquakes), and dropping incendiaries in large concentration were inevitably create a firestorm as seen in Hamburg and Dresden.

Firestorms are unique in that they create their own weather systems. The intense heat creates strong updrafts, tornadic winds which spiral out from the furnace spreading embers and burning debris a considerable distance which in turn set off additional fires. At the same time powerful winds are sucked into the storm (bascially it’s feeding itself w/ oxygen) which are strong enough to pick people up and toss them into the inferno. As a result, firestorms spread rapidly and are very diffcult to control.

In Tokyo, firefighting consisted of people tossing buckets of water onto flamming house which had no effect whatsoever on the flames (in fact the water evaporated before even reaching the houses). The radiant heat was strong enough to spotaneously set people on fire, melted asphalt, and boiled rivers where some had sought refuge. I have even read of reports of some B-29’s flying down low and straffing escaping civilians. Napalm is adhesive and sticks like “stink on poop”, burning at 1500-2000 degrees F. According to Kim Phuc, the famous photo of a young girl runing down a street naked screaming in pain following a napalm strike during the Vietnam War, has quoted that napalm “is the most terrible pain you can imagine”. So it’s clear that those unfornuates died in the most painful of fashions.

In response to Digger’s comment, incendiaries were certainly more effective in destroying Japanese cities, but these bombs were not aimed at factory installations. Pathfinders made a big flamming bullseye over a working class neighborhood, so the target was civilian and not military. Le May knew well, from the combination of wooden/paper structures and dropping countless firebombs that this would generate a firestorm. Major industries would be struck by the inferno and destroyed, but many civilians would be killed in the process. He even admitted before the raid that many Japanese women and children would be killed that night. Furthermore, napalm is known to release large amounts of carbon monoxide, which by the 1925 Geneva Protocal is illegal since it proscribes that the use of asphyxiating gas or liquid is prohibited. The United States signed this treaty. Futhermore, the Hague Draft “Rules of Air Warefare” of 1922-1923 legitimizes air bombardment only when directed against a military target. The bombs that fell over Tokyo were directed at a densely packed working class neighborhood, which is a direct violation of the treaty. True Japanese cottage industries existed, but didn’t exist in every single residence. There’s no good evidence to show the target had an overwhelming majority of these industries to justify it as a military target.

As far as China is concerned, I still don’t understand how this relates to the US firbombing of the city. Had it been the Chinese airforce, this would be different. B-29’s bombing Tokyo as “reprisal” for Japanese atrocities commited in China follows the same logic as person A from Boston kills person B in New York City, therefore person C from New Jersey who gets infuriating over hearing about it on the nightly news decides to kill person D from Boston as a justification for the murder…LOGIC??? Besides, seeing how the Americans saw the Japanese as subhuman, vermin, inferior in race, do you honestly believe that the US held any more esteem for the Chinese? The Chinese were merely a political ally, so prejudice against them was muted. The Japanese also saw themselves as superior to the Whites, I believe they refered to them as “hairy barbarians”, so racsim was well reciprocated. Getting back to the Chinese, are you aware following the San Francisco earthquake of 1906, only 567 were reported. According to Wikipedia “hundreds of casualties in Chinatown went ignored and unrecorded due to the racsim at the time.” Another fact is the virtually unheard of “Phillipine-American War 1898-1913”. Long story-short the Philippines declared indepence from Spain following the Spanish-American War, but the US was determined to annex it. A protracted guerilla-type war ensured resulting in mass civilian killings. General Jacob Smith ordered all Filipinos aged 10 or older to be killed. Other Army leaders quoted that the war was a “N-word (racist) killing buisness” Whole villages were burned, water torture were employed against combatants and non-combatants alike. Many civilians were killed or forced into concentration camps where an estimated 250,000-1,000,000 died from the war, malnutritution, or cholera…interestingly cholera is spread through drinking contaminated water…perhaps germ warfare??? Only 3300 US troops died of disease during the campaign. Please read up more about this. The point is, the Japanese commited great atrocities at Nanking, Manila, but was the US so innocent in treatment of Asians, or the Native Americans in it’s history???

My last point I’d like to make, is that despite the B-29 firebombings, Japanese resolve to fight on didn’t weaken…In fact it grew stronger. Between March 10-18 B-29’s hit Tokyo, Osaka, Kobe, and Nagoya (the bulk of Japan’s industrial hubs). Beginning April 1, 1945 the US started a campaign against Okinawa. By the end of the battle in June
US ARMY losses
7th division: out of 21,929 1,225 KIA/MIA about 5.59% fatalitly rate
27th division: out of 16,143 735 KIA/MIA about 4.55% fatality rate
77th division: out of 20,981 1,058 KIA/MIA about 5.04% fatality rate
96th division: out of 22,330 1,518 KIA/MIA about 6.79% fatality rate

US MARINE losses
1st division: out of 26,274 1,156 KIA/MIA about 4.4% fatality rate
6th division: out of 24, 356 1,637 KIA/MIA about 6.72% fatality rate

AT Sea: 34 Navy ships sunk and over 300 damaged w/ 5,000 navy personal killed by kamikaze strikes.

1 Aircraft Carrier sunk, 3 more hevaily damaged.
march 18 1945: Wasp heavily damaged w/ 101 killed and 269 wounded
april 7 1945: Hancock heavily damaged w/ 72 killed and 82 wounded
march 19, 1945: Franklin heavily damaged w/ 745 killed and 265 wounded
may 4, 1945: Shanganan sunk w/ 46 killed and 116 wounded
may 11, 1945: Bunker Hill heavily damaged w/ 396 killed and 264 wounded

some of Destroyers sunk include
april 2, 1945: Dickison w/ 54 killed and 23 wounded
april 6, 1945: Colhoun w/ 35 killed and 21 wounded
may 28, 1945: Drexler w/ 158 killed and 52 wounded
june 29, 1945: Calaghan w/ 47 killed and 73 wounded
march 26, 1945: Halligan w/ 153 killed and 39 wounded
may 4, 1945: Luce w/ 149 killed and 98 wounded
may 4, 1945: Marrison w/ 159 killed and 102 wounded
april 12, 1945: Monert L. Able w/ 79 killed and 35 wounded
june 16, 1945: Twiggs w/ 152 killed and 64 wounded

there are more ships of course, but I’m too lazy to write them all down

In the Air:

Although Japanese night defenses against B-29’s were virtually non-existant in early 1945, by May Japanese moved in AA and commited more aircraft to assault the B-29’s. By May 1 many Japanese cities had been firebombed but,

May 11: 480 B-29 raid results in 11 shot down
May 19: 286 B-29 raid results in 3 shot down
May 23: 525 B-29 raid results in 17 shot down
May 25: 470 B-29 raid results in 26 shot down
May 29: 461 B-29 raid results in 7 shot down
June 1: 474 B-29 raid results in 10 shot down
June 5: 481 B-29 raid results in 11 shot down

after June 5, the Japanese decide to save their aircraft for the anticipation of US invasion. Losses drop dramatically, but Japanese AA still poses a threat

June 22: 362 B-29 raid results in 5 shot down
June 26: 510 B-29 raid results in 6 shot down

With military, naval, and air losses it seems unconvincing that Le May’s firebombing had seriously hampered the Japanese war effort or shorten the war. The Japanese seemed willing to fight to the death.