:tank:Events of the past week or so have suggested that the “international community” has begun, belatedly, to recognize the danger posed, not just to regional, but to global stability by the emergence of the loony Jihadist, but well-organized “Islamic State”. Today, Secretary of State Kerry is presiding over a meeting (in balmy Paris) of ill-sorted Foreign Ministers in an attempt to tape together some sort of “coalition of the willing” to oppose the anal-retentive towel-headed hordes. Initial indications is that the effectiveness of the proposed coalition is likely to be somewhat limited. In Iraq, the “boots on the ground” bit will be left, apparently, to the discredited Iraqi army (which seriously needs to be rebuilt - again). There are vague indications that some other regional states may be willing to conduct air strikes on Caliphist targets in Iraq, "subject to the approval of the (new and untried) Iraqi government. There are also vague references to “other measures” (presumably in the areas of finance and trade). So far, there is little to cause the nutters to shake in their sandals. Perhaps they may be a little puzzled by the apparent willingness of fellow Wahhabi believers, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to conduct bombing raids on their Iraqi territory while still funding them … but that is hardly unusual in that part of the world.
Then there is the little matter of Syria. No official voice is talking about bombing Islamic State targets there. The Assad regime itself has indicated that it would regard such operations over its territory as an affront to Syrian sovereignty, and a matter for war. They would, in all probability, be willing to do some sort of “co-belligerency” deal with the “coalition” - but the latter is clearly repelled by the political (not to mention moral) compromise that this would involve; “shake hands with the Devil” comes to mind. And that is not to mention Iran. Iran has enough boots on the ground to wipe out a bag of Caliphates, but the moral and political compromise involved in sanctioning (let alone encouraging) direct Iranian involvement is clearly beyond Mr Kerry’s capacity, in any case.
Some things are clear enough. First, the so-called Caliphate is, at present, amply funded. Even (and, given the duplicitous parties involved) this is unlikely, the Saudis and Qataris cut off funds, the Islamic State is now generating enormous revenues from a combination of surreptitious oil sales, as well as its traditional sources of protection rackets, downright robbery, pseudo-taxation in their territories, and various forms of extortion. Presumably, they are less likely to be involved in drugs and prostitution - putting them on the same point of the moral compass as Don Vito Corleone, but more profitable.
Secondly, they are not exactly short of recruits. Even if one does not accept the propagandistically-motivated “Intellegence” extimates circulated in recent days of anything up to 50,000 IS fighters under arms, the total is obviously considerable - perhaps 15,000 to 20,000. This cannot be put down to the much-publicized, but actually pretty paltry, flow of “western” Jihadists to the Cause. The actuality is that the IS could not be holding its current territory unless it had recruited a substantial number of Syrians and Iraqis, of which many of the latter would have a degree (sometimes a substantial degree) of military education. Unless effective action is taken soon to deflate the IS balloon, this situation can only get worse.
Thirdly, air strikes (let alone France’s recon missions, just announced) and “other measures” will not do the business - especially if they exclude IS territory in Syria. Knocking out the IS - at least in the short term, in which it can certainly do damage - will take boots on the ground. Nobody can reasonably attach blame to the reluctance of the US and Britain to commit troops in view of their recent sacrifices (however ill-conceived) in Iraq and Afghanistan. But what does this leave ? Well, what it leaves, mainly, is the ramshackle Iraqi army, the non-IS Syrian rebels (including Al-Nusra, who have no love of the IS) and … Iran. What chance of any effective force crafted out of this ménage even being sanctioned by the “coalition” ? Not much, I suspect.
With the Caliphists, apparently, in the process of crafting a rudimentary state structure across a large part of Syria and Iraq, the problem of the IS really does require an urgent response from the “international community”. Regrettably, it is difficult to see one coming. Maybe they should hand the whole matter over to the World Intellectual Property Organization - it only takes them a decade or two to fail to agree a Treaty …
Yours from a nice restaurant in Geneva, eating sauerkraut, JR.:army: