Hopping for some input from Flamethrowerguy I will first try to present what I have on the topic of numerical estimate of the number of rape victims in Germany at the end of WW2.
First I will present the fruit of my own mind, i.e. I nowhere else saw similar approach to this topic. But maybe I just did look good enough… Anyways, after that, in a new port following after some days, I will present what I know from others who critically but sensibly approached the issue of how number 2M victims came around.
So lets start with my thoughts on the numerical estimate, which I will try to present here shortly and clearly. To the best of my abilities.
Sinopsys: In the war of the scale of WW2 one may expect the increase of the crime rates, incl. rape crime. Ask your self now, before reading further, how many times the rape crime rate went up? … We are speaking East Front now only, right.
2-fold? 10-fold? 50-fold? 100-fold? 1000-fold?
What is a realistic estimate of this increase coefficient? …
Keep this in mind and read further.
Goal: Develop approach to estimate the lowest and the highest level of rape assaults by Soviet citizens in Western Europe.
Method: Find the rape crime rate in the relevant male population in peace time. Then apply the statisticaly known peace time rate (see below) to the population in question (All Soviet citizens in Western Europe at the end of WW2). The result - the lowest estimate.
Now, during the war this figure would increase. How many time? Remember the question above?
So the highest estimate is the peace time level multiplied by increase coefficient. Right?
Calculation:
In 1997 the number of rape cases was about 50.000 a year. This figure includes latent crimes. Back then Russia’s population was 147,9M people, 46,7% of which were males of all ages. Without male children - 55.255.440 men which commit about 50.000 rape crimes a year. Hense rape crime rate: 905 rapes per Million men per year.
But now we have to find how many Soviet sitezen males were in Western Europe at the time in question, lets say 1 year. From August 1944 til August 1945.
The number we are looking for consists of few parts:
[ol]
[li]5,9M - RKKA soldiers in service, average # during the period. [/li][li]1,1M - RKKA soldiers who died in service, total # during the period. [/li][li]1,0M - Other servicemen: NKVD, Railroad workers and such. [/li][li]1,85M - “Ostarbejder” males. [/li][li]1,0M - Soviet POW who survived the captivity.[/li][/ol]
So the total # of men who actually phisicaly was present in Western Europe is about 10,85M men.
Though, we should remember that not all of them were either present there the whole period (RKKA, NKVD) or had an opportunity to commit a crime during the whole period (Ostarbejder, POW). Therefore we have to weight these figure with a time coeffitient. The result is as following:
[ol]
[li]0,92 for RKKA. (gradual increase during first 3 months, the rest is on the max level)[/li][li]0,25 for KIA. (the losses distributed evenly across 6 months)[/li][li]0,92 for NKVD, Railroad and other servicemen. (the same as for RKKA)[/li][li]0,15 for “Ostarbejder” males. (about 60 days between liberation and repatriation to USSR)[/li][li]0,15 for POW. (the same as for “Ostarbejder”)[/li][/ol]
The result is:
7.050.500 manyears = (0,92 х 5.900.000 + 0,25 х 1.100.000 + 0,92 х 1.000.000 + 0,15 х 1.850.000 + 0,15 х 1.000.000)
Result:
Now we know how many men, potential rapist, spent a year in Europe and we also know the rape crime rate of these men.
Hense we calculate the lowest level in peace time - 6.380 rape crimes.
For highest level estimate for the war time we will not forget about the increase coefficient. The result can be presented as a table:
[b][u]coef.[/u] [u]rape cases[/u]
10 63.799
30 191.397
50 318.996
100 637.991
300 1.913.974[/b]
This is not perfect way, but it gives fuel for thinking.
So you can for your self deside what is a more realistic number for such coefficient. What value did you think about at the beging of the post, before reading the calculation and conclusion?
Keep in mind that in all the cases I was trying to interpret the doubt NOT in the favour of the Soviet citizens. Otherwise all questions are welcome. I can back up more or less all the numbers I used here.