Results are out on the Scottish independence referendum - 45 per cent in favour, 55 per cent against, on a whopping 85 per cent poll based on an incredible 90 per cent registered electorate. Thanks to the complacency (or perhaps excessive caution - or both) of UK national politicians in their conduct of the “no” campaign, the Union only took a near-miss this time. The end of the matter ? Perhaps not.
Thursday’s referendum arose out of an agreement between the Scottish devolved government and the Westminster parties which arose, in turn, from a commitment to holding a referendum on the matter in the manifesto of the Scottish National Party in a previous successful election. Within the last week, the British government and the main opposition Labour Party, panicked by the sudden prospect that their anticipation of an easy victory over the separatists might prove misplaced, entered into a number of commitments to further devolution of powers to the Scottish Assembly without, however, being terribly specific. A degree of devolution of fiscal powers. This will be no simple matter, since it renders more crucial than ever the long-standing “West Lothian Problem” - how the powers of Scottish Westminster Members of Parliament might be limited in their power to vote on “English” affairs of a nature decided for Scotland in Scotland, over which English MPs have no say. Then there is the little matter of the Northern Irish and Welsh Assemblies, which will also look for similar concessions. All this plays into the ongoing political crisis facing Prime Minister Cameron in his own Conservative Party, in which the decades-long war between pro-and-anti European Union factions continues. An in-or-out referendum on UK EU membership has been “promised” by Cameron for the next Parliament (that is, should he still be a serving Prime Minister in that Parliament). The unease among Conservative MPs is by no means calmed by the presence, to their Right, of the EUrophobe United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) which threatens Conservative marginal seats, and which will light upon any sign of Tory “weakness” on matters European to promote their own electoral appeal.
Already, Cameron has shown signs, if not of rowing back on last week’s commitments, at least of temporizing. The enhanced devolution will now be delivered “in the next Parliament”, following preliminary measures to be taken in this. Perhaps more worrying for Edinburgh is the suggestion that enhanced devolution for Scotland “must” be solved in the general context of UK devolution (N.I., Wales) and, most worryingly, with the solution of the “West Lothian Problem” that has evaded solution for decades. Should Westminster fail to deliver on these commitments to a sufficient extent by the end of this Parliament, the Scottish Nationalists would undoubtedly claim that the referendum had been won on the basis of bad faith - in which case it is quite possible that another SNP electoral manifesto commitment will have the Scots headed towards another referendum well before another generation has passed. Interesting times, North of the Border … Yours from Arbroath, Declaring, JR.:rolleyes:
