Western alliance doesn't declare war on Germany.

[32Bravo]

Hi chaps

Sorry, I’ve been absent for some time - very busy life.

Have been wondering of late, what might have happened should Britain and France not have been drawn into the war against Germany after the German invasion of Poland. It is a complicated history as, for instance, would Mussolini have still invaded North Africa and drawn the western alliance into the conflict anyway. On the other hand, what if Hitler had asked Mussolini to postpone until he had completed Barbarosa, and would barbarosa have taken place when it did etc. etc.?

[Churchill]

Heh, I was reading something similar to that but it was concerning WWI and the UK’s participation. That’s a story for a different topic though.

Mussolini would probably still have invaded North Africa, seeing as he invaded Ethiopia. His plan of attack would probably have been different though, maybe attacking French Tunisia instead of British Egypt. This would have brought either one or both of the colonial powers to war, most likely leading to Hitler declaring war on them anyway as he did with the US.

Hitler would probably still have invaded France and the BeNeLux due to the threat he saw from France as well as his past grudges. The UK would probably have done what it did in real life: attempt to establish a surface blockade using the Royal Navy but not accomplishing too much to counter U-boats.

I doubt that Mussolini would have delayed his African or Greek adventures due to his jealousy of Hitler’s exploits. Something about becoming the junior fascist partner would also most likely have prevented him from delaying either of them.

Just my thoughts.

[Rising_Sun]

I’m inclined to think that Mussolini was emboldened by Hitler’s successes to take steps he might not have taken if Italy was operating on its own.

Either way, as North Africa and Greece both showed with Germany having to come in to sort out a losing fight started by Italy, the only difference was that Italy would have been thoroughly defeated by the British in North Africa and by the Greeks in Greece without German intervention.

Which in turn diverted German forces at critical times and, in the case of Greece, postponed Barbarossa perhaps six weeks which might have been the difference between taking Moscow and not taking it.

Mussolini’s principal contribution to the war was to aid the Allies by embarking on exercises where his ambition vastly exceeded his military capacity.

[Rising_Sun]

@32Bravo

Hi chaps

Sorry, I’ve been absent for some time - very busy life.

Presumably dividing your time between mud runs, cheese rolling contests, and tuning your Zimmer frame for a faster time to your letter box to collect your pension cheque. :mrgreen:

Good to see you back, me old mate.

[leccy]

@Rising_Sun

I’m inclined to think that Mussolini was emboldened by Hitler’s successes to take steps he might not have taken if Italy was operating on its own.

Either way, as North Africa and Greece both showed with Germany having to come in to sort out a losing fight started by Italy, the only difference was that Italy would have been thoroughly defeated by the British in North Africa and by the Greeks in Greece without German intervention.

Which in turn diverted German forces at critical times and, in the case of Greece, postponed Barbarossa perhaps six weeks which might have been the difference between taking Moscow and not taking it.

Mussolini’s principal contribution to the war was to aid the Allies by embarking on exercises where his ambition vastly exceeded his military capacity.

With the late spring thaw I don’t think the Axis could have attacked before June 1941, the Axis (mainly German) intervention in the Balkans did not deplete the strength available for Barbarossa as the unused reserve for Barbarossa was larger than the forces used in the attack on Greece.

The Italian forces best efforts were in West Africa where they outnumbered and were far better equipped than the meagre forces the Commonwealth could spare, although ultimately a side show to the side show of North Africa (even there the Italians had more manpower, supplies and generally better or at least equipment of equal capability until early to mid 1941 apart from the few British Matilda Senior’s sent).

Germany would probably have had to attack the Western Allies (France and the Low Countries) just to ensure its flank was safe, it also ended up using huge amounts of captured war materiel including vehicles to equip its Divisions for Barbarossa, without that captured booty the Germans would have been even worse off than they were so may have delayed Barbarossa (then again it could be argued that the booty only replaced the losses in the attack on France and the low countries and later Britain).

[steben]

@leccy

With the late spring thaw I don’t think the Axis could have attacked before June 1941, the Axis (mainly German) intervention in the Balkans did not deplete the strength available for Barbarossa as the unused reserve for Barbarossa was larger than the forces used in the attack on Greece.

The Italian forces best efforts were in West Africa where they outnumbered and were far better equipped than the meagre forces the Commonwealth could spare, although ultimately a side show to the side show of North Africa (even there the Italians had more manpower, supplies and generally better or at least equipment of equal capability until early to mid 1941 apart from the few British Matilda Senior’s sent).

Germany would probably have had to attack the Western Allies (France and the Low Countries) just to ensure its flank was safe, it also ended up using huge amounts of captured war materiel including vehicles to equip its Divisions for Barbarossa, without that captured booty the Germans would have been even worse off than they were so may have delayed Barbarossa (then again it could be argued that the booty only replaced the losses in the attack on France and the low countries and later Britain).

Yes, makes sense.
Even in the phony war from sept 1940 - may 1940, Hitler attacked Norway and Denmark first. It all fits into a large plan of controlling your flanks when possible and hitting quickly. Sweden was coming along already with its ore resources. He would have attacked Sweden as well no doubt if not.

The one and only question remains the American story: what if Hitler did not declare war after Pearl Harbour in 1941?