I never understood why the Japanese adopted the ABCD doctrine. Viewing themselves at war with America, Britain, China, the Dutch before the war began.
Since their primary objective was the oil fields in the Dutch East Indies, why not just annex the Dutch East Indies in the same way that they annexed French Indochina?
America had no treaty obligations to defend the Dutch East Indies. The British obligations were being met by empty words.
While on paper it looks like the Japanese invasion force would be putting its head into a noose, with the British on their right flank and the Americans on their left flank, the reality was that even if the British, Americans, Australians, and New Zealanders acted in concert with the Dutch, the forces that could be brought to bear to stop the invasion were too pitiful to be successful and were separated by hundreds or thousands of miles of ocean.
While a tactical surprise was impossible, a strategic surprise might have been possible. Local commanders would have seen the invasion force steaming toward Dutch territories but would they have acted on their own initiative to stop them? And by the time that word got to London, Washington, Batavia, Canberra, and Wellington and the politicians had their jawing sessions, and then word got back to the local commanders would it be in time to stop the invasion?
If the annexation of the Dutch East Indies was launched soon after the fall of French Indochina the Allies were woefully underprepared to stop them.
The British and the Americans had said that they would not tolerate a change in the status quo of the Dutch East Indies, but were they prepared to go to war to prevent it? Would the American public have agreed to a war to defend the Netherlands’ overseas empire?
By the time sufficient Allied forces were assembled off Malaysia, the Phillipines, or Australia to contest the matter the campaign would have been over.
A gamble yes, but I think it was a gamble worth taking. And no more of a gamble then sending air craft carriers thousands of miles to bomb Pearl Harbor.