Currently reading “Operation Sea Lion” by Peter Fleming. Nowhere near finished yet so not sure if there’s going to be anything of relevance.
I think the obvious response from Fighter Command had the battle gone worse for them would have been to pull back 11 Group’s units to 12 Group’s “patch”. Not ideal but a lot safer to preserve those assets for the time of the invasion.
Pure hypothesis for discussion:
Such a pull back of 11 Group, allowing the Germans easier (but not unopposed) access to the South Coast to prep for the invasion… The invasion starts and the pride of the Wehrmact sets sail in a woefully inadequate “fleet”. Opposition on land is inadequate but then perhaps it only needs to be inadequate (better than non-existant). Royal Navy sets sails on an “all or nothing” mission and within the day is running through the Channel messing up the German’s scarce vessels which NEED to survive more than the first wave of landings to
A) Reinforce
B) Bring the heavier equipment to give the Wehrmacht the edge
C) Resupply
Kriegsmarine opposition will be token. The Germans NEVER maintained a surface fleet capable of standing toe to toe with a serious RN threat. They’d given up on the very idea when they ran to port after Jutland in the first World War. In WWII they had a fleet good for commerce raiding and attacks on small forces, but all the vessels the RN would throw into the channel once the invasion begun?
Even with the advantage in air superiority stakes (it would be contested, not complete - the RAF WOULD be over the Channel, but with longer flight times from 12 Group’s airfields) the Luftwaffe won’t be capable of protecting the surface combatants in the invasion fleet from the Royal Navy. And even if the Royal Navy is terribly mauled by the Luftwaffe in doing so, the German’s invasion fleet would be wiped out long before the RN could be. And with it, the Germany army forces committed to the invasion up to and including the wave onboard at the time!
Put simply - the Germans could not stop a seaborne evacuation from the French side of the channel. They’re even less likely to be able to pull off a seaborne invasion on the other side! They didn’t even start planning for it until mid-1940!
So the RAF “loses” the Battle of Britain in that they are forced to vacate their South East bases. There was a reserve and there were more bases within range of the possible invasion beaches. Britain wins the BoB if Germany doesn’t invade… I don’t see how Germany could successfully invade. In fact, they end up at LOT worse off from trying than Britain does.
Just my thoughts…