Do you think the USSR would've defeated Germany w/o allies?

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#41

G’day,

The problem with ‘what if’ scenarios is they invariably breed further ‘what if’ scenarios, as this thread has. So I’ll answer on two levels.

The Soviet Union would have won, if German strength and makeup of forces remained the same as history tells us.

On the other hand if the Luftwaffe was expanded to the level it should have been at the beginning of Barbarossa, then the Germans would have won.And we’re talking of a force three times the size of the actual forces deployed during Barbarossa.

Sorry for the each way bet guys.

Regards to all
Digger.

#42

Hi Jim,

Believe me it is not easy for me to agree with Chevan. I don’t like bolsheviks… what can I do? I’m just bastard like that!

But in this case, I support Chevan word by word and letter by letter!
Nothing to add to his post! If Japs would attack in Far East and Stavka would not be able to move some siberian divisions… well, the scale could be tilted.
Still, I think only COULD. Nothing sure.

I agree with Digger that 3 times stronger Luftwaffe could make difference.
But problem is, that essentially destruction of obsolete I-15, I-16 and SB-2 planes forced utmost importance of re-starting evacuated behind the Ural aircraft industry.

What the figures are?

In first month of the war Luftwaffe held an overhelming attritional advantage of about 10 to 1 over red Aviation.

But looking at it from statistical point of view … hey, hey!.. Much worse picture is emerging!
In first month of the war, soviets lost nearly 7500 aircrafts - 70% of their strength, mostly bombed on the ground. (AND NO MATCH FOR LUFTWAFFE)
Germans lost 774 aircrafts this month - 60% of their total strength committed to Eastern front. AND MOST MODERN!

Soviet loses were mainly obsolete planes. After initial shock, new models were flowing in, at a rate that Germany could not even dream of.
Perhaps they were not excellent, pilots disliked them, but soviet industry churned in 1942 - 3332 MiG-3’s and 6528 LaGG-3’s.

Someone may say that they were not too good… Yes, soviet pilots called
LaGG-3 = Lakirovannyy Garantirovanny Grob…
Varnished Guaranteed Coffin…

But in what numbers??? The same story repeated again - Panther was better then T-34 and Sherman, so what? How many Panthers Germans could produce?

And new LaGG-7 were created on their experience to match German FW-190.

Looking at this anyone would know that Germany lost the war around 22-nd of July 1941. The rest was just a matter of time.
Perhaps without Lend Lease and vital sheeted aluminium supplies, soviets would have to fight until 1947, but they would end up in Berlin… no doubt about it.

P.S.

Jim, I know that you are interested in history. Great, I would like to help you to understand a lot of real history.
And I will do it if you ask. Any question welcomed!

But avoid voicing opinions like that:

“Germany would win lol. The Soviets won by leading tech from the Americans such as the Bazooka. its air force would have failed against the luftwuffe.What if the V-1 \V-2 Rockets hit the factories and major cities out of range for the airforce?”

Mate, if we talking about computer games… well, you may be close.
But in REAL, Yanks could drop 10,000 bazookas without any effect.
I would say that 10,000 empty wine bottles would be more helpfull than unknown weapon in hands of untrained troops.

Cheers,

Lancer44

#43

G’day,

I always have a problem with claimed Soviet production figures and wonder if much of it was propaganda. During 1942 the Soviets were throwing every plane they produced into combat, virtually as they came off the production line.

At the time of operation Uranus they scraped together just on 1,400 aircraft under the direction of Marshall Alexander Novikov, including four Air Corps from Stavka reserve. The rest of the front was threadbare.

At the same time Soviet production of aero engines had just reached five hundred units for the first time since the enforced dislocation of the industry eastwards. So I cannot see how the claimed fighter production figures add up.

This is not a pot shot at you Lancer 44, as some Soviet figures have been very rubbery in the past and I’ve learnt to not entirely trust them.

Having said that, the massive increase in aircraft production did come in 1943 and they were able to directly challenge the Luftwaffe before the Battle of Kursk.

Regards to all
Digger

#44

Soviet production figures, much to the chagrin of Hitler, have been confirmed as accurate. Although I don’t understand what is meant when they say could the USSR have defeated the Fascists without Allies- do they mean entirely alone? I don’t think that would have been possible. It might not have been possible had the Germans not invaded Yugoslavia as well. All that matters is what finally did happen.

#45

G’day,

Hitler was highly irritated that Soviet industry had recovered throughout 1942, but whether he knew the full extent is open to conjecture as subordinates were reluctant to pass on bad news. Hitler’s tantrums in the lead up to Stalingrad were explosive.

German sources for Soviet production figures were very accurate, as they were in Washington. The problem as I said earlier is claimed production of aircraft does not match up with aero engine production figures. The only way I think this gap may have been ‘fiddled’ is if there were stockpiled aircraft waiting for placement of engines.

There was considerable conservation of aircraft strength in the winter months of 42/43.

Regards to all,
Digger.

#46

Do not underestimate the sheer quantity and variety of what was sent to Russia under lend lease – aside from aircraft, tanks, vehicles and weapons, tens of thousands of tonnes of aluminium, armour plate, food, cloth, and countless other sundries, including strategic raw materials that Russia was short of.

#47

Mate , you are the “bolshevik” even more than i thought. :slight_smile: :wink:

#48

I think Germany probably could’ve taken russia if they did everything that hosenfield had mentioned. I believe this because look at how the Germans bumbled them stalingrad. Germany would’ve taken over the whole world they would’ve kept spreading and today we would either not be in existance or be speaking german right now. I think it is a great thing they didn’t though because so many people would be injured.

#49

USSR + winter = YES

USSR - winter = NO

#50

Russia’s best commander’s Generals Winter, Snow and Mud. :wink:

#51

Good humor VonWeyler :smiley:
Simular logic is:
Great Britain + La Mansh = winner of ww2
Great Britain - La Mansh = loser of ww2
Becouse what did save the GB from the german invasion in 1940-41 if not English Channel??
or:
USA + Pacific osean = winner
USA - Pacific osean = loser

Cheers.

#52

It was the soviet intelligence who had convinced Hitler that Stalingrad in Jenuary this is Miami in summer. :slight_smile: :smiley:
And they promised to Hitler asphalt highway directly to the Moscow. :wink:

Now i understand why in russia the roads are so bad - this is the secret plan against any western invaders.

Cheers.

#53

Good point Chevan.

#54

I knew it!!! :wink:

#55

I did not go back and read all the posts here on this question, so forgive me, as I’m pressed for time. But, I thought I’d take the time to make an “un-influenced by other posts” post on the subject at hand.
It is a hard question in many aspects.
The Russians have always had their terrain, and no-one, including Napolean, has ever defeated it.
I must say-this was Hitlers greatest mistake.
Over-confidence. As many have said before was the case, including his own officers.
Given all of the facts, I will give my opinion to this point;
I think, if Hitler had focused his sights on Russia, not having a second front, he could have driven through to Moscow at the outbreak with Blitzkrieg.
The time that was given to Russia to gather itself, was the downfall.
If Russia had been ready at an outbreak, I think a stalemate would have ensued.
All this, with the assumption there is not a second allied front.
Hitler bit off too much from a sandwich that was too big for him.

#56

Hello!

The strength of any country is not unlimited. USSR was not an exception.
Germany was much-much more industrialised. The same goes for Czechoslovakia at that time. I remember reading somewhere that Skoda factory alone produced more tanks and trucks during the war then UK. So you put USSR alone and isolated, with no aid from outside against Germany controlled Europe and Germany could pull all of their forces from all the places in the world to eastern front, then there is very high chance they would reach Ural. Of course then they would have to keep this territories and it is far from easy.

But in real world there are many players. UK did not want to give too much power neither Hitler nor Stalin. UK’s policy in essence was to protect its own interests (like controlling Mediterranean passage to Suez). So in reality USSR had to fight alone until D-Day. This is of course not 100% true, but nonetheless correct to say. US and mostly Churchill were using USSR to do the job by sending some supplies (as valuable they were they did not affect the course of the war on global scale).

But do not worry. If Stalin was in the same position as Churchill, he would do exactly the same – let other to exhaust each other.

Best regards
Igor Korenev

#57

Sorry for my English defeated Germany u mean just German .Not all they Axis Finland Romania Italy .And Soviet save from Japan.When German save from U.S.A. and Britain.No land lease .
In just my opinion Soviet should win
1st German ally (Romania Finland Italy) march 1.5 millian mens to Soviet at beginning of the war and even German have to protect their west Soviet have to protect their east from Japan.

2nd land lease send weapon to Soviet about 10% of their productivity in gun and air force .And it can send in number when after they win U-boat in 1943 . Operation Uranus which the turning point of the war finish in 1942 .And make them serrender in Stalingrad in Feb 1943

Soviet win in factory if war were long Soviet have more advantage .And German will have fuel crisis some day.

But Soviet should respect Ally help .With out Ally help Axis should destroy them. Not only U.S. and Britain but include China and Asia freedom figther who hold Japan.And Ally should respect Soviet who help them win German.

#58

This is holy thue nosta…:wink:
But i think you could agree the allies should also respect the USSR contribution to the war. In the Eastern from were crushed the 70-80% Germans&axis infantry and tanks and at least 50% of german aviation -the power that could easy destroy the allies coalition forces in the Africa-Italy-Normandia.

#59

hell no the germans would have won.

#60

The weather cannot be used as an excuse for the German failure although there are other excuses that seem more reasonable.

One thing that seems a bit odd is that the Soviets were able to mobilize such a huge number of soldiers given the reported population of the USSR and the fact that a considerable part of the population was in areas controlled by the Germans for part of the conflict. Where did all the soldiers come from? The population of the USSR does not seem all that huge based on the stats I have seen yet they reportedly mobilized over 34,000,000 in their armed forces from 1941-1945.

Additionally, quite a few people in the USSR sided with the Germans and they would not have been available to the Soviet war effort.