Unfortinately this scenario is very possible
And just to Israel but tprobably to Iran also.
If Israel wil continie to train and arm the Geogia more, it might spoil the relation finally.
Errr… there is a MASSIVE difference between a development test (which these were) and a system demonstration test. Doing a system demonstration test when you’re in a development phase is moronic - you’re almost guaranteed to fail and won’t learn anything. When development testing you ALWAYS fix the test so as to test only a single subsystem - so you don’t have things like decoys deployed unless you’re specifically testing decoy discrimination.
Oh, and the definition of “ineffective” is suprisingly elastic. If the system runs on shoot-shoot-shoot-look (probable, given the ranges it runs at), an interceptor missile system with 20% effectiveness will still destroy half of the incoming missiles. Since the enemy don’t know which half, they have to double-target everything they want to destroy - meaning that the three interceptor missiles of 20% effectiveness each have neutralised half of the enemy deterrent.
You realise, of course, that a bullet is about the easiest target there is? It’s falling under gravity with no accelerative force, so if you get two positions and a time at those positions you can know it’s exact position for the rest of it’s flight at any given time. After that it’s just a matter of ensuring your interceptor missile is in the same position at the same time as the incoming missile (which you don’t even need a homing warhead on the interceptor to achieve).
Incidentally, the ability to do this isn’t new. The US did so out of Kwajalein in the 1960s as part of the Nike Zeus programme. There are some fairly spectacular photos of them doing so out there - I’ll see if I can dig them up tonight.
Which is why the Russians have had a working ABM system surrounding Moscow since around the 1970s?
Utter b*llocks. Get yourself a nuclear bomb effects calculator and work out the effects on your home town of a 300kT nuclear strike. Hurricane Katrina did more damage than a strike by a single warhead - the problems come when they fly by the thousands and break up the fabric of society. Most casualties would come from starvation and disease, not the weapons themselves.
Right. But the system has had very little return after a huge investment. In any case, my point is that the “missile defense system” (code for ABM) is a crap shoot at best, and a very expensive one. It is plausible against a relatively crude ICBM that Iran or North Korea might build in the next few years. But it would have little real effect on determined Russian or Chinese countermeasures…
Oh, and the definition of “ineffective” is suprisingly elastic. If the system runs on shoot-shoot-shoot-look (probable, given the ranges it runs at), an interceptor missile system with 20% effectiveness will still destroy half of the incoming missiles. Since the enemy don’t know which half, they have to double-target everything they want to destroy - meaning that the three interceptor missiles of 20% effectiveness each have neutralised half of the enemy deterrent.
Yes well, we were talking about MIRVs again? Such a system is also rather easy to spoof with multiple decoys. Any technologically sophisticated power can in turn develop defenses for their offensive systems, which will quickly force expensive upgrades and countermeasures to them. So “deterrence” is a two-way street. And we’re just in another arms race - which is why the ABM treaty was established in the first place…
You realise, of course, that a bullet is about the easiest target there is? It’s falling under gravity with no accelerative force, so if you get two positions and a time at those positions you can know it’s exact position for the rest of it’s flight at any given time. After that it’s just a matter of ensuring your interceptor missile is in the same position at the same time as the incoming missile (which you don’t even need a homing warhead on the interceptor to achieve).
Incidentally, the ability to do this isn’t new. The US did so out of Kwajalein in the 1960s as part of the Nike Zeus programme. There are some fairly spectacular photos of them doing so out there - I’ll see if I can dig them up tonight.
Please do. But part of the reason that the Nike program was ultimately outmoded (I live down the street from one of the bases abandoned in the early 1970s) is that the actual operational Nike systems had nuclear warheads that were in essence there to form a ring of fire that would pummel and disrupt incoming Soviet ICBMs. The problem is that this produced a whole host of other problems such as EMP bursts, which would cripple all electronics.
Also hitting a “bullet with a bullet” means that you need enough bullets to hit your enemy’s machine-gun burst. Part of the reason for the ABM treaty. Part of the reason the US abandoned even the concept of the 100 interceptors allowed, even though the Sprint missile was very promising. What was the point of possibly saving one city? Or missile wing from a first strike?
Which is why the Russians have had a working ABM system surrounding Moscow since around the 1970s?
Don’t you mean the 1950s (in one form or another)? But anyways, the system was only a marginal threat to American deterrence and certainly would not have spared Moscow. The Soviets decided to maintain an outdated ABM system whereas the US decided not too bother, because in the end, the result is the same.
Such a system would also probably not been effective against cruise missiles. And how they would have fared against SLBMs, I’m not sure. But the subs would certainly have cut their window of warning!
In any case, the (US) interceptors to be based in Poland number only ten, and are not on-station in the direct arctic path of Russian nuclear warheads. They are in the direct axis of Iranian missiles should they ever come on line. But you are correct, the Russian gov’t is hypocritical decrying US ballistic missile defense while themselves optioning the clause in the ABM Treaty allowing up to 100 of them.
Utter b*llocks. Get yourself a nuclear bomb effects calculator and work out the effects on your home town of a 300kT nuclear strike. Hurricane Katrina did more damage than a strike by a single warhead - the problems come when they fly by the thousands and break up the fabric of society. Most casualties would come from starvation and disease, not the weapons themselves.
Um, do I need to remind you that Katrina was in a zone that was at least partially evacuated and killed “only” about 1000, which is small compared to comparable disasters such as The Tsunami, the Iranian and Chinese earthquakes. But by the same token, a terror attack involving two airliners and 3000 dead damaged the US economy and effected the Dow to the tune of -400 points in one day. The US economy has never fully recovered, though partly due to the stupidity of a pResident deciding to punish “the Chinese” for the “Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor.” Even Katrina caused a disruption of US gas and oil supplies, though things were easily rerouted. I doubt the added catastrophe of radiation and huge fires from multiple nukes could be compared to the localized, long term effects of the flooding of one US city. Not too mention that relief and rebuilding would be hideously expensive.
In any case, a few US cities would cause utter economic chaos. Even four or five US cities would result in millions killed and severe disruptions to the US economy since the US is relatively densely populated.
Just about to leg it for work, so I’m limited to a short answer for this one. Most missile defence systems (the current US one included) have enough range to hit the warhead bus rather than the incoming warheads themselves. AIUI there is some fundamental physics which means a warhead can’t be launched more than a certain distance out, meaning the bus will always be vulnerable. As for decoys, take a look at how long it took the UK to build Chevaline. That took years, cost billions, and halved the number of warheads the UK was able to deliver to Russia. Even if the Russian defences never shot down an incoming missile, that’s still a major success.
The ring built in the beginning of 1950s around Moscow was not ABM system, but SAM missile ring. Operational from 1955. It was first populated by S-25 liquid powered rockets (SA-1 Guild in NATO naming convention). It had range of 35km at 20km height in 1955. In 1970 these characteristics were improved - 54km range at 35km height.
The overal responsible for the construction (just like with nuclear weapon) was “the world’s best manager” Lavrentiy Beria.
In later years when the system was replaced (1970) it was used for targets during training.
http://www.raspletin.ru/produce/adms/s25/
http://pvo.forum24.ru/?1-2-0-00000004-000-0-0-1218543441
But anyways, the system was only a marginal threat to American deterrence and certainly would not have spared Moscow. The Soviets decided to maintain an outdated ABM system whereas the US decided not too bother, because in the end, the result is the same.
Well, again it is not an ABM, but SAM system.
Not according to the ABM treaty, which lists the Russians as having a system (A-35, later A-135) around Moscow.
Oh, and the majority of Russian SAM systems are generally thought to have at least some ABM capabilities, although for treaty reasons the Russians tend to keep quiet about them.
Right. But that was from 1971. I was replying for the period before that.
The S-25 was not designed initially for ABM purposes as the BM themselves were in practice nonexistent back then.
Well i do agree with pdf.
USA militarists actualy know what they do.
The newest ABM in europe can seriously decrease the risk of total nuclear destruction of America from the quickly thawing Russian Starategic forces.Firstly because the essential Part of Russian Missles shall be redirected on the Territory of Europe for initial destroing the ABM.
So hardly we can ignore such a threat.
The few American easy cities can be sucrificed for the NAme of Nuclear victory over Russia and China ( The Chinas strategical forces are still very small and can threat the USA)
Oh come on Nicki.
The USA have a lot of puppets, “pocket dictators” and other “our bastards” around the all the world, suppliing them with money and wearpon.
Look for instance at Pakistan where the “american friend Musharaf” were ruling by the brutal methods decades.
The GEorgian puppets officially getting salary from American department since 2005:)
The several millions dollars of American taxpayers have been spended to a creation of pro-american regime in GEorgia that did ONLY what USA permit him:)
But idiot Saakashvili finaly has commited a mistake- that just prove a sad true- not every “our bastard” is useful for democracy as i said before.
The vast majority of Poles did not support the US basing ABMs on their territory until the invasion of Georgia, where the ratio slipped to an overwhelming public support. This despite, OR EVEN BECAUSE of Russian threats to nuke Poland.
The reasonable majority of Poland can’t greetings the ABM on their territory- becouse this is too small to protec the Poland from innevitable Russian nuclear attack.To the contrast- the ABM seriously increase the danger of Total destruction of Poland.
I think , it is not Poles but their puppet elite lick the American ass , seeking the personal profit for themself.
Betraying the European safety at the same time.
Your paranoidal Neocons seems are ready for everything to “Protect their Isreal” from Iranian/Korean miisles.
Russia has no one to blame but itself for the wariness of the surrounding European powers.
Yea , now tell me fary tels like a Russia supplied and PRed the Muslim extremist in Balcans.
All the russia can do - ( and have to do) is just to Protect their interests by economical methods.
The USA don’t even care about economic , prefering to send a right bombers and troops everywhere.
Of course! Anyone that disagrees that they should not want to return to the empire of mother Russia must be a paid American agent!
And the pro-American Georgian regime was created by Georgians. A concept that the Russian gov’t seems to fear more than anything else…
The reasonable majority of Poland can’t greetings the ABM on their territory- becouse this is too small to protec the Poland from innevitable Russian nuclear attack.To the contrast- the ABM seriously increase the danger of Total destruction of Poland.
I think , it is not Poles but their puppet elite lick the American ass , seeking the personal profit for themself.
Betraying the European safety at the same time.
Your paranoidal Neocons seems are ready for everything to “Protect their Isreal” from Iranian/Korean miisles.
Stop! You’re making the Bush Admin seem sort of intelligent! They’ve managed to cause an ineffective ABM system to actually deflect any Russian inbound nuclear weapons to Poland! 
(Where the winds will blow all of the radioactive fallout right back too you!)
I once dated a girl of Polish decent, but I never could get her to lick my ass!
And the interceptors actually are designed to protect the American continent…
Yea , now tell me fary tels like a Russia supplied and PRed the Muslim extremist in Balcans.
All the russia can do - ( and have to do) is just to Protect their interests by economical methods.
The USA don’t even care about economic , prefering to send a right bombers and troops everywhere.
Um, then why do we throw our money around?
Return to empire?
I have no idea who wanted to return Eastern Europe to the “Russian empire” in 1990-yy…Have you?
And the pro-American Georgian regime was created by Georgians. A concept that the Russian gov’t seems to fear more than anything else…
The pro-American dictator Saakashvili neven could take the power in Georgia without the rich American sponsorship and leadership:)
We all know it. i mean the fact thow USA care about installation of pro-american regimes in post -soviet territories.
Stop! You’re making the Bush Admin seem sort of intelligent! They’ve managed to cause an ineffective ABM system to actually deflect any Russian inbound nuclear weapons to Poland!
The Bush admin ( if Admin really rules in that country) is not that ineffective as it can seems.
The ABM can actualy make lower risk for USA , but it can burn the Europe.
And …one importaint addition…The radioactive fallout would fly no right on my head , but Initialy on the heads of Poles, Germans, Italians and Chehoslovakians, …then Ukrainians
And say me please ,why shall Europeans suffer becouse few Polish political is going to get personal profit from American ABM?
I once dated a girl of Polish decent, but I never could get her to lick my ass!
It’s because the beautiful Polish girl ( i like them BTW ) have a proudness.
But the number of cheap polish political prostitutes are ready to Lick whatever mr G. Bush wish , not only his ass.
And the interceptors actually are designed to protect the American continent…
Nobody disputes it.
But on the other hand the American interceptors, placed in Poland, should transform the Europe into the Nuclear Battlefield.Europe is going to be a Hostage of American puppets.
Um, then why do we throw our money around?
Because YOUR money Nick , costs nothing,( even gramm of gold) without American world’s hegemony.
So trying to save YOUR hegemony , American admins thow the Money around.
US administration simply don’t know how to spend money right inside US.So they use the monetary interventions very active, adding it to their Military interventions around the world.
Not in the traditional sense, but no one can deny that Russia has territorial aims on former Soviet republics that are not expressly Russian…
The pro-American dictator Saakashvili neven could take the power in Georgia without the rich American sponsorship and leadership:)
We all know it. i mean the fact thow USA care about installation of pro-american regimes in post -soviet territories.
You keep repeating this silly “dictator” shit. He was elected. Get over it!
And in fact, the US gov’t strongly advised him against prosecuting the offensive…
The Bush admin ( if Admin really rules in that country) is not that ineffective as it can seems.
The ABM can actualy make lower risk for USA , but it can burn the Europe.
And …one importaint addition…The radioactive fallout would fly no right on my head , but Initialy on the heads of Poles, Germans, Italians and Chehoslovakians, …then Ukrainians
And say me please ,why shall Europeans suffer becouse few Polish political is going to get personal profit from American ABM?
So it’s all about Russian nuclear extortion then? Over ten interceptors with demonstrably limited effectiveness?
Really?
It’s because the beautiful Polish girl ( i like them BTW ) have a proudness.
But the number of cheap polish political prostitutes are ready to Lick whatever mr G. Bush wish , not only his ass.
What a myopic view. You’re “enemies” are all whores, but your lapdogs are all vailent?
Nobody disputes it.
But on the other hand the American interceptors, placed in Poland, should transform the Europe into the Nuclear Battlefield.Europe is going to be a Hostage of American puppets.
So, in the improbably event of the US nuking Russia, Russia will retaliate by nuking Estonia?
Because YOUR money Nick , costs nothing,( even gramm of gold) without American world’s hegemony.
So trying to save YOUR hegemony , American admins thow the Money around.
US administration simply don’t know how to spend money right inside US.So they use the monetary interventions very active, adding it to their Military interventions around the world.
So, we are smart enough to not just use military force to achieve our aims?
Does anybody know why Georgia is considered the biggest country in the world?
Ah yes…good ol’Russian Imperialism and Empire building rears it’s ugly head YET AGAIN.
When, oh when, are you people going to learn that there is room for only one policeman of the Globe?..
AND IT’S NOT RUSSIA…
We niether trust your archaic leadership style, your heavy handed economics, or your glorious insistance that your nieghbours march to the tune of your drums and fifes.
FACE IT…NOBODY wants to be ruled by hydraulic despots. I would gladly support any move by Russia to cease to be power players and start to be trading humans again.
Sort out yourselves economically and socially and then we may listen to your sabre rattling…meantime…get back in the dog box…your time of empire has PASSED. Even the Great British Empire ended with a whimper rather than a large bang…and the United States is not finished by a long chalk…so wise up and fix your own internal problems before presuming that the rest of us take your sordid country seriously as anything on the global stage.
Quick tip…MONEY comes frome TRADE which is the result of PRODUCTS that you make and sell that people want and purchace…learn this lesson and join the global community, rather than being permanent outsiders with a grudge at the world for not recognizing your greatness…STALIN and friends guaranteed that we have to wait for the memories of that period to die before Russians can become part of the community again…
SORT OUT YOUR INTERNAL PROBLEMS, THEN LECTURE THE REST OF US ON HOW TO CONDUCT OUR AFFAIRS…
And, if you can possibly trade without involving organised crime at every turn, then and only then will you start to make MONEY…
At the moment you lose 1 dollar to corruption for every 4 that enter the country…
No wonder nobody wants to conduct business with you. The employees for the oil and gas companies that I deal with all say the same thing of Russian companies…
Impossible to deal with.
Clean your act up…
Yeah, you dumb Russians.
Learn from America, the home of free trade. :rolleyes:
First step: Outlaw tariffs and other trade barriers for everyone, except your own country.
Second step: Outlaw economic distortions like government support for primary industry, then pump government money into your primary industry like there is no tomorrow.
Third step: Lecture the rest of the world on the importance of outlawing trade barriers and economic distortions.
Fourth step: Demand that all countries open their markets to imports, while insisting that this does not apply to your own country.
Fifth step: When other countries say that you’re being selfish and inconsistent, crack the shits at the WTO conference and stalk off in a sulk because you can’t get your own way.
:twisted::twisted::twisted:
What a load of ballocks!
a fine measure of the essential living standards in any country you can name is defined by the number of people trying to enter or leave the nation in question…and I still see plenty of people attempting to LEAVE a country like Russia, …
and a hell of a lot of people trying to ENTER the United States of America…
sums it up for me…
case dismissed, really…
If business customers suddenly withdraw their energy products, I would not do business with them either…
Lets see them run their own oil ang gas industry to any great degree of profit…fat chance…not without U.S. help.
U.S. oil and gas technology fuels the globe…and they don’t just shut off supply of their product to macro customers…
Sadly, for you, Kitty, it isn’t just about your opinion. Even if you do wish to consider yourself prosecuter, judge and jury.
Everyone knows how wonderful the USA is. Not only have American citizens been raised on a diet of ‘Peace, Justice and the American way’ but the rest of the world has had to endure it also. Mainly through the brainwashing machinations of Hollywood. Of course, this is rather good for America as it helps a number of states remain united by promoting an attitude of ‘why exchange this Utopian society for something less’ i.e. a break up of the union - be grateful that you’re not still enslaved under the tyranny of King George! :roll:
The hypocricy of it all is truly alarming to those who moved mountains to get there only to find that it’s a sham. 
For example: we speak of the corruption of organised crime in Russia - but who set the standard for organised crime if not the U.S. ?
Deniable, of course, because J Edgar Hoover was an Arse-bandit who was being blackmailed by the Mafia and, therefore, had to deny that organised crime existed so that the organisation of which he was the head wouldn’t have to investigate it. Then there is this rubbish about the ‘Untouchables’ (who might have been touched by Hoover), whom Hoover used as an excuse for not investigating organised crime as he didn’t want his men (the said ‘Untouchables’ which implied incorruptable) to be corrupted by the criminals which they might have had to investigate. So, for decades, the Mafia was able to organise and consolidate and now they are beyond the law. So much so, that they practically run the country after generations of education, networking and politicing.
Now you talk about Russia not being welcome in joining the international community, as if you have the authority to say who and who may not become a part of the international community, Are you kidding?..who the Foxtrot Uniform Charlie Kilo are you?
This isn’t even cold war prejudices as the differences between Russia and the US go back further than WW2. What it is, is the bleating of somebody who feels threatened by a new challenger, a new kid on the block.
In reality, Russia isn’t even your problem - China is!