…and maybe also in Iran might be a regime changing…
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20060726.aspx
July 15, 2006: While Iran officially supports Hizbollah in the war with Israel, Iranian public opinion is mixed. It’s no secret that Iran has given Hizbollah billions of dollars in aid, and much of that is now being destroyed by Israeli firepower. Many Iranians still live in poverty, and they are not happy with all the money spent, and apparently wasted, in south Lebanon.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/1D608570-C11E-4AEB-B14B-84B47DC401E7.htm
[FONT=Verdana]Al-Zawahiri urges attacks on Israel
Thursday 27 July 2006, 14:31 Makka Time, 11:31 GMT
Al-Qaeda’s deputy leader has urged Muslims to attack Israel and its allies over the violence in the Middle East.
In a taped message broadcast on Aljazeera, Ayman al-Zawahiri said al-Qaeda would not stand by while “these [Israeli] shells burn our brothers” in Lebanon and Gaza.
He called on Muslims to join forces and fight what he called the “Zionist-crusader war” against Muslim nations.
“Oh Muslims everywhere, I call on you to fight and become martyrs in the war against the Zionists and the crusaders,” the Egyptian born former doctor said.
"The war with Israel does not depend on ceasefires… It is a jihad for God’s sake and will last until religion prevails … from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahiri said.
[LEFT]Open battlefield [/LEFT]
[LEFT]“The entire world is an open battlefield for us and since they are attacking us everywhere, we will attack everywhere.”[/LEFT]
[LEFT]The deputy to Osama bin Laden wore a grey robe and white turban during the statement. A picture of the World Trade Centre on fire was on the wall behind him along with pictures of two fighters.[/LEFT]
“The shells and rockets ripping apart Muslim bodies in Gaza and Lebanon are not only Israeli, but are supplied by all the countries of the crusader coalition. Therefore, every participant in the crime will pay the price,” al-Zawahiri said.
[LEFT]He also suggested that the world cared more about Israelis than Palestinians.[/LEFT]
[LEFT]“The 10,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel’s prisons do not move anything while three Israeli prisoners have shaken the world,” he said.[/LEFT]
The statement was the first from al-Qaeda to comment on Israel’s offensive in Lebanon which began after the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid by Hezbollah.
Israel also attacked Gaza after Palestinian fighters killed two Israeli soldiers and captured another on June 25.
Al-Zawahiri has evaded capture since US-led forces brought down the Taliban government in Afghanistan in 2001 following the September 2001 attacks on the US.
The message was the tenth released by Zawahiri this year.
I miss now our Jewish anarchist friend and his view about the media…
[/FONT]
Edited:
http://www.infoshop.org/wiki/index.php/Lebanon
Groups from around the world are calling for various actions to be taken to stop the mounting violence in the region.
Sometimes I wonder on which world they live… I only want to ask Jeffrey what he would do face to face with a suicide bomber…
Thanks for the great posts Dani 
Here is more on the incident involving the deaths of four UN observers on July 25th:
E-Mail Casts Doubt on Claims of Israel Targeting U.N. Peacekeepers
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Fox News
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,205978,00.html
[b]UNITED NATIONS — An e-mail sent by a Canadian U.N. observer and obtained by FOX News casts doubt on claims by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan that the Israeli attack on a U.N. peacekeeper observation post along the Lebanese border was intentional.
The email from Major Paeta Hess-von Kruedener warned that the post had come under “unintentional” artillery fire and aerial bombing several times in the previous weeks, and that several Hezbollah positions were in the area of the patrol base.
“It is not safe or prudent for us to conduct normal patrol activities,” wrote Kruedener in the July 18th e-mail. “(The artillery and aerial bombing) has not been deliberate targeting, but has rather been due to tactical necessity.”
Kruedener was one of four unarmed U.N. military observers killed in Tuesday’s bombing.
“I think that e-mail is very important, because unfortunately these are practically the last words of somebody who eventually paid with his life,” said Israel’s U.N. ambassador Daniel Gillerman. “He’s telling his commander that Israel was not targeting them and that there is Hezbollah activity around there.”[/b]
This comes as the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a statement on Thursday expressing shock and distress at Israel’s bombing of the U.N. post, but fell short of condemnation…
…The final text said “the Security Council is deeply shocked and distressed by the firing by the Israeli Defense Forces on a United Nations Observer post in southern Lebanon…”
The condemnation of Israel was eliminated, as was the call for a joint investigation.
In the final statement, the council called on Israel “to conduct a comprehensive inquiry into this incident, taking into account any relevant material from U.N. authorities, and to make the results public as soon as possible.”…
I agree. Israel could have ‘decapitated’ Hezbollah without pounding Lebanon…
And, they’re not really having a good offensive, suffering more casualties on the ground than I’m sure they would have hoped or thought they would…
Thanks George but my post was only another perspective as Jeffrey stated some time ago.
My bold.
Jeffrey, if you truly try to look at this whole thing from a perspective of social justice, please do it! You told that US news (on TV) are biased. What stopped you to search the internet to check another perspective?
Cheers!
So we should return North America to the Native Americans? They were here first after all…
Various maps showing the areas where the current conflict is occuring between Israel and Hezbollah:
Eastern Mediterranean Region - Hammond Atlas of the World 1992
Scale: 1: 3 000 000
Israel / Lebanon - Kummerly + Frey 1982
Scale: 1: 750 000
Village of Bent Jbail where initial battle occured is marked with red “X” on map
Israel / Lebanon Border Region - John Bartholomew & Son, Ltd - Edinburgh 1975
Scale: 1: 350 000
Village of Bent Jbail where initial battle occured is marked with red arrow on map
Israel / Lebanon Border Region - Israeli 1978
Scale: 1: 250 000
Village of Bent Jbail where initial battle occured is marked with red arrow on map.
It is just north of the Lebanese village of Maroun Aras (Maroun Al-Ras) which had been captured earlier by Israeli forces.
Also I have indicated many place names in English (in red) on map
More Maps of Lebanon:
Map - U.N. Interim Force in South Lebanon - July 2006
http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/dpko/unifil.pdf
Area further north of city of Tyre, Lebanon and the Litani River:
Map - Lebanon - University of Texas Collection - 2002[/b]
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/lebanon_rel_2002.jpg
Gaza Strip Map - satellite Images of Gaza
http://www.maplandia.com/gaza-strip/gaza/
Detailed map of Gaza and near places (with zoom and panning ability)
Welcome to the Gaza google satellite map! This place is situated in Gaza Strip, its geographical coordinates are 31° 30’ 0" North, 34° 28’ 0" East and its original name (with diacritics) is Gaza. See Gaza photos and images from satellite below, explore the aerial photographs of Gaza in Gaza Strip. You can also dive right into Gaza on unique 3D satellite map by Google Earth.
Gaza Strip Map - satellite Images of Gaza - University of Texas Collection - May 2005
Scale 1: 65 000 (with zoom ability)
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/gaza_strip_may_2005.jpg
Gaza Strip Map - University of Texas Collection - December 1991
Scale 1: 150 000 (with zoom ability)
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/gazastrip91.jpg
SEE ALSO:
Gaza Strip and West Bank Maps - University of Texas Collection
Various maps produced by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency unless otherwise noted.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/gazastrip.html
Thank’s George! That arial view of the Gaza Strip is interesting!
You’re welcome Tiger
That scale 1: 65 000 really brings it in close - you can actually see individual buildings.
Now that was quite funny !
Where did you find it ?
Israel: You Can Look It Up
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060728.aspx
July 28, 2006: Hizbollah is a slave to its own rhetoric. Hizbollah is the Lebanese arm of the Iranian Shia revolution. The Islamic radicals who run a religious dictatorship in Iran, carried out a coup in the 1980s, taking control of the government during a desperate war with Iraq (which had invaded Iran in 1980). The religious zealots in Iran believe the world would be a better place if everyone were Moslem, of the Shia variety (which predominates in Iran and Lebanon, but not with 90 percent of Moslems, who prefer the Sunni, or other minor sects.) Iran also believes that Israel must be destroyed, and Iranian leaders have not been shy about repeating this again and again in public. Hizbollah leaders repeat this demand. This basic Hizbollah goal, the destruction of Israel, makes negotiations with Israel difficult. Israel has apparently decided to forget about negotiations, and instead, take Hizbollah apart piece by piece.
Israeli troops have been fighting Hizbollah gunmen for over a quarter of a century. You have many Israeli infantrymen fighting in Lebanon now, who got practical advice from their fathers, who had battled Hizbollah back in the 1980s. Israel knows how to defeat Hizbollah, as they have been doing it for decades. But until the recent Hizbollah raids across the border, Israel has avoided going after Hizbollah on a large scale. This was an attempt to keep things quiet on the Lebanese border, and give the Lebanese a chance to settle the problem with Hizbollah peacefully. That seemed more likely, after a popular (and largely peaceful) Lebanese uprising last year that forced Syria to pull its troops out of Lebanon.
Since the 1980s, Syria had a force of over 30,000 soldiers in Lebanon. Originally sent in a peacekeepers during the 1975-90 Lebanese civil war, the Syrian force soon became guardians of Hizbollahs growing empire in southern Lebanon, and protector of Syrian economic interests (many of them criminal, like drug smuggling) in Lebanon. Without those 30,000 Syrian troops, Hizbollah, and the Lebanese Shia (about 35 percent of the population) were more vulnerable than they had been in over two decades. Intense negotiations commenced. No one wanted a resumption of the civil war, but all Lebanese were concerned about this state-within-a-state that Hizbollah had created in southern Lebanon. The UN was concerned as well. As part of the deal, when Israel pulled out, Hizbollah was to disarm and a force of 2,500 UN peace observers (UNIFIL) would watch over a new era of peace in the south. For the last seven years, Hizbollah has refused to abide by that deal, and most Lebanese were tired of the delays. Increasing the attacks against Israel seemed like a good idea, as it made Hizbollah seem more useful, if Israel did not strike back. The rest of the Lebanese political parties were not making threats, yet, about Hizbollahs refusal to disband and let southern Lebanon become part of Lebanon once more. Hizbollah wanted to make their autonomy in southern Lebanon permanent, but was unsure of how to do it. Hizbollah stumbled into war with Israel while seeking a solution to its problems with the rest of Lebanon.
Getting accurate news about the fighting in southern Lebanon is complicated by the fact that Hizbollah, the Lebanese and most of the media are more concerned about producing propaganda and excitement, than in reporting facts. Hizbollah knows, from long experience, that they cannot defeat Israel. But Hizbollah knows that it can spin the media. The Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000 was a peace offering that was, in typical Hizbollah fashion, simultaneously spurned and exploited. The same techniques are being used during the current war.
But now Israel is determined to cripple Hizbollah, a move that will lead to the organization either dying, or fading into insignificance. Hizbollah had made lots of enemies in the last 25 years, many of them in the Lebanese Shia community. If Hizbollah losses most of its economic and military assets, that will make it weak enough for other Lebanese groups to overwhelm it militarily and politically. This appears to be the Israeli plan, and the way things work in the Middle East, it appears to be working. Support for Hizbollah from the Arab world has been muted, compared to similar situations in the past. Even Iran is not happy with Hizbollahs actions, and has pointedly not sent any new weapons. Naturally, the Sunni Arab world is down on Hizbollah (and its explicit goal of replacing Sunni Islam with the Shia variety). While Lebanese politicians have been vocal in their support for Hizbollah, there has been no rush to provide any material support.
Israel has destroyed most of Hizbollah’s economic assets, and is now going after the military ones. There are thousands of bunkers, fortified buildings and tunnel complexes in southern Lebanon that Hizbollah can use to fight from. Israeli troops may have to battle through all of them to cripple Hizbollahs military strength. Israel has done this successfully against the Palestinians for years. This will not be reported very accurately in the media because that would be boring. Israeli tactics are methodical and, well, not very dramatic. The mass media needs excitement, and when they can’t find it, they invent it. Think back to the many battles Israel has had with the Palestinians, or the reporting on the American three week march on Baghdad in 2003, and remember what the pundits were saying, compared to what was actually happening. The mass media depends on most people not retaining any memories like that, and being willing to accept breathless, and inaccurate, reports of the current wars.
What makes war unpredictable is the fact that, while genius may have its limits, stupidity doesn’t. Hizbollah is basically stupid. They are part of a movement dedicated to taking over the world. Israel just wants to survive. Hizbollah is part of an Arab military tradition that takes pride in a long string of defeats because that means eventually the enemy will get tired of beating on us and go away. This is how they turned the 2000 Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon (actually a peace offering) into a great military victory for Hizbollah. Another example of stupidity without limits.
When the dust has settled on this war in Lebanon, the remnants of Hizbollah will be busy rearranging the facts in order to produce another victory. But Hizbollah will no longer be the force it once was, and Lebanese soldiers and police will once more be patrolling southern Lebanon, rolling past the wreckage of Hizbollah bunkers and military facilities. The hundreds of buildings and bridges destroyed by Israeli bombs will be a reminder to the Lebanese of what happens when you allow part of your country to he hijacked by a bunch of religious maniacs. The majority of Lebanese were never happy about Hizbollah, but lacked the courage to do anything about it. Israel’s not going away, but Hizbollah is. It’s members can easily go back to being Lebanese, or get killed by an Israeli smart bomb, or sniper. Israelis have no such options, and have no choice but to fight and win. That makes a big difference on the battlefield. You can look it up.
Military Blunders: Fatal Flaws in Arab Thinking
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20060731.aspx
July 31, 2006: Most Westerner’s have become aware, because of the war on terror, that people in the Middle East view the world according to different standards. Perhaps the most important difference between the Middle East, especially the Arab world, and the West, is the attitude towards compromise. While Westerners see compromise as a path to success, Arabs see it as an admission of defeat. This attitude is reflected in many ways. For example, Arabs are more willing to accept religious absolutes (“all non-Moslems are scum”). The Middle East attitudes towards women, especially Arab acceptance of “honor killings” (murdering a women if she is even suspected of misbehavior), are part of this lack of nuance.
The Arab love for absolutes has also produced a culture that more readily accepts conspiracy theories. Indeed, the conspiracy theories are often preferable to reality. In this way, we get the common Arab willingness to blame all their woes on “others” (other Arabs, or, better yet, Westerners.)
After decades of avoiding problems, and solutions, because of these conspiracy theories, it has become fashionable among many educated Arabs to admit that, perhaps, many Arab problems are caused by things Arabs do, or don’t do. That’s a start, but the Arab preference for absolutes makes it very difficult to change. And democracy doesn’t work that well either, for one of the cornerstones for a functioning democracy is compromise.
All of these bad habits, and even many Arabs will admit that the paranoia, blame-shifting and absolutism are bad, can be seen in Arab media. While many Arab journalists know they are putting out misleading, often counter-productive, garbage, it’s what the markets still wants, what too many Arabs still respond to most enthusiastically.
Many Europeans are still willing to leave the Arabs alone as they work these problems out themselves. Eventually. But the United States decided it could not wait, after the events of September 11, 2001. This difference in attitudes towards Arab thinking has created a continuing rift between Europe and the United States.
Israel: The Phony War
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060731.aspx
July 31, 2006: The Hizbollah tactic of firing rockets from residential areas, and forcing civilians to stick around when the rockets are fired, has paid off. One rocket launching site in a large building in southern Lebanon, for which Israel released video of rockets being launched, before bombing the building, turned out to contain over fifty women and children. The civilians know that the Israelis bomb any place where rockets are fired from, but Hizbollah gunmen will force the civilians to stay. This has caused many Lebanese, even Shia in the south, to turn against Hizbollah. Some journalists have even been able to get out of Lebanon with pictures of this, but most of the world media prefers to call Israeli response to Hizbollah attacks a war crime and leave it at that. This is going to be one of those situations where, down the road, historians are going to wonder just what the world was thinking during all this.
While Hizbollah is good at getting Lebanese civilians killed, they are not very effective at hurting Israelis. Engineer and intelligence troops have identified less than a hundred rockets landing in Israel each day so far. This is done by collecting and identifying fragments. But as time goes by, more rocket hits are discovered in unpopulated areas of northern Israel. Apparently more than a hundred rockets are landing in northern Israel each day, but on many days, only a few dozen land anywhere near residential areas. Many of the rocket salvos (two dozen or more 122mm rockets are being fired at a time) are not aimed very well at all, and don’t come down anywhere near to an Israeli settlement. This is why there has been less than one Israeli casualty per rocket fired. This casualty rate has been coming down. One recent barrage of 25 122mm rockets landed in an Israeli town and caused no casualties at all (but damaged several buildings).
The Israelis keep civilian casualties down by having better bomb shelters, using them more effectively and evacuating many of the more exposed towns in northern Israel. Since Israel is a democracy, the government has to do all it can to minimize its civilian casualties. Hizbollah is not a democracy, but a religious dictatorship (trying to bring that form of government to Lebanon, and then the world.) Hizbollah considers itself on a mission from God, and within its rights to kill anyone, and do anything, to complete its mission. Thus the policy of getting the maximum number of Lebanese civilians killed. European and Moslem media have taken the bait, and are calling Israeli responses, to Hizbollah attacks, “war crimes.”
Israeli ground operations appear to be using paratroopers and other elite infantry to hunt down and kill Hizbollah rocket launching teams. Hizbollah has not got a lot of trained people. Kill them, and they are hard to replace. There are only so many rocket launcher teams. Kill them, and no one will be available to take the rockets out of their hiding places and launch them. Right now, this battle is being won by the Israelis, because Hizbollah has not been able to launch many longer (over 20 kilometers) rockets at more densely populated areas deeper in Israel. Most of the rockets are short range ones. The Israeli attack on the transportation system in southern Lebanon has made it difficult to move large objects, like big rockets, into position for launch.
Israel agreed to a 40 hour halt to air attacks on the 30th, to provide time to investigate the bombing the day before that killed over fifty civilians at a Hizbollah launching site. This is supposed to give Hizbollah an opportunity to reciprocate. But Hizbollah has more pressing problems. While the Lebanese media won’t discuss it much, most Lebanese are quite angry with Hizbollah. The stories, of how Hizbollah forces civilians to stay around rocket launch sites, are now widely known. Israeli intelligence agents in Lebanon are getting more good tips on Hizbollah activity, especially within Christian areas. The Lebanese Christians know they are considered eventual targets (as infidels) of Hizbollah, and have noted Hizbollah men joking about getting the “Jews to do our work for us” (killing Lebanese Christians.)
The main problem in Lebanon is, and always has been, that the civil war never really ended in 1990, especially not for the Shia faction represented by Hizbollah. Iran accepted the 1990 ceasefire in Lebanon under pressure from the rest of the Moslem world. But while Hizbollah entered Lebanese politics in the 1990s, they never disarmed their militia, supported the continued Syrian occupation of Lebanon, and did not recognize the authority of the Lebanese government, in portions of southern Lebanon that Hizbollah controlled.
Israel is not giving detailed briefings on its tactics and exactly what its forces have accomplished so far. That’s because this war is largely a psychological one. It’s also an Information War, where the manipulation of the media is an important aspect of the fight. In this respect, Hizbollah has an edge, because most of the Moslem and European media will automatically side with them against Israel. That said, the Israeli strategy appears to be the destruction of people and material that Hizbollah will have the most difficulty replacing, and weakening Hizbollah enough so that the majority of Lebanese, and the Lebanese government, can regain control of southern Lebanon (and Hizbollah controlled Beirut neighborhoods), that Hizbollah has controlled for decades. If Lebanon can put itself back together, Hizbollah will be much less of a threat. Because this conflict is also seen as another battle in the thousand year old war between Sunni and Shia, most Arabs, while cheering for Hizbollah, because they are armed Arabs who did not go down before the Israeli in the first round, will not be terribly upset if Hizbollah ultimately loses and disappears.
Leadership: The Lebanon Gambles
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20060801.aspx
August 1, 2006: The rather sudden shift in international opinion about the Israeli campaign in Lebanon, from blaming Hezbollah for provocation, to blaming Israel for undertaking a “disproportionate response” and, more recently, for “war crimes,” illustrates a major problem in attempting to use massive conventional capabilities in what is essentially a battle for public opinion.
When Hezbollah raided Israeli territory, kidnapping two Israeli soldiers, and killing several others, it seems to have done so deliberately to provoke a massive Israeli response. For weeks, there had been increasingly open talk in Lebanon about disarming militias, and a consensus appears to have been developing that this included Hezbollah (despite the participation of the movement’s political front in the current government). By provoking Israeli military action, Hezbollah hoped to burnish its credentials as a champion of Arab resistance.
Initially things didn’t go so well for Hezbollah. For one thing, the scale of the Israeli response came as a big surprise. Worse, many Arab leaders, who are mostly Sunni anyway, whereas Hezbollah is Shia and a creation of the hated Iranians, condemned Hezbollah for provoking Israel.
But the scale of their response soon began to tell against Israel. Rather than conduct carefully focused air and commando strikes directly against Hezbollah’s leaders, forces, and infrastructure, the Israelis went in loaded for bear. It’s not clear just what the Israeli objective was. If the intent was to break Hezbollah, then why were most of the targets struck not directly connected with Hezbollah, and most not even in the Hezbollah-dominated south? Some policy analysts seem to think Israel may have been hoping to force the Lebanese government to initiate its own action against Hezbollah. Perhaps, but might that have been more likely if the Israelis inflicted grievous injury to Hezbollah while leaving the rest of Lebanon relatively unscathed?
Worse, by adopting a major conventional response, the Israelis set themselves up for a public relations disaster. Hezbollah’s policy of sitting missile launchers in the middle of residential areas was deliberately intended to invite Israeli attack, in the hope that civilian casualties would result. And the Israelis did precisely that.
While Israeli actions are understandable, given frustration over years of violent attacks by genocidal enemies, and although in the circumstance civilian losses are legitimately Hezbollah’s responsibility, a more carefully crafted response would likely have paid off better. A Machiavellian strategy is needed, not a kinetic one. Then again, Israel does understand the neighborhood, and may have gauged Lebanese public opinion, in the long term, better than outsiders give credit for.
Commandos and Special Operations: Hizbollah Caught Planning an Atrocity
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsf/articles/20060802.aspx
August 2, 2006: Israeli troops operating in south Lebanon captured a Hezbollah safe house, and found the usual weapons and other equipment, as well as a supply of Israeli Defense Force uniforms. This indicated plans to stage a major “atrocity.” Committed, as the evidence would clearly show, by Israeli troops. But perhaps this will never happen, for Israeli raids into southern Lebanon have captured many Hizbollah documents, as well as some live Hizbollah members. These, combined with Israeli electronic eavesdropping, reports from agents inside Lebanon, give the Israelis a pretty good idea of what Hizbollah is up to. Without much fanfare, Israeli commandos and aircraft will respond to Hizbollah plans.
Leadership: Following the Money In Lebanon
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20060802.aspx
August 2, 2006: Hizbollah is a major economic factor in Lebanon, with an annual operating budget of $650-700 million a year, of which some $250 million seems to come from Iran. The rest comes from other donors, including some Islamic charities, and a large number of legitimate businesses, which includes banking, and illegal activities (drugs and smuggling). A fair chunk of this money is spent on social programs, rather than the movement’s military wing, but the ratio between the two is unknown.
There are about 1.3 million Shia in Lebanon, and they are the main benefits of Hizbollahs spending. Since the Shia have, and remain, the poorest segment of Lebanese society (the Christians have always been the wealthiest), the Hizbollah money is very important. As such, that comes to over $500 of Hizbollah money, per capita each year for Lebanese Shia. Hizbollah is the major employer for Shia. Because so much of that money comes from Iran, and the Shia supported the two decade Syrian occupation of Lebanon, the Shia remain at odds with most Lebanese.
While the Israeli air campaign in Lebanon has been expensive (a hundred or more sorties per day, each costing up to $10,000, or more), the cost to Hizbollah has been even greater. While many non-Hizbollah assets have been attacked, the Israelis have concentrated on what Hizbollah owns, and will miss. While Hizbollah can depend on Iran to help repair billions of dollars in damage, this is already causing popular unrest in Iran. The large annual subsidies have long been unpopular in Iran, where poverty is still widespread. The non-Shia Lebanese will also note that they will have to dig into their own pockets to repair the war damage, while the Shia get lots of money from Iran.
But what the non-Shia Lebanese fear most of all is a resumption of the 1975-90 civil war. This cost nearly 200,000 Lebanese their lives, impoverished many more, and sent several hundred thousand into exile (some have returned since 1990). And Hizbollah, and all its money, remain the most likely outfit in Lebanon to revive the civil war.
Israel: An Embarrassment of Rockets
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060803.aspx
August 3, 2006: In the last 24 hours, Hizbollah fired a record 231 rockets at five Israeli towns, killing one Israeli (a civilian) and wounding 49. The Hizbollah rocket campaign against Israel has been a colossal failure, and this is being noticed in the Arab world. So far, it appears that Hizbollah has to fire over a hundred rockets, to kill one Israeli civilian. This is not impressive, especially when you consider that Hizbollah is trying to kill Israeli civilians. Many of the rocket warheads have been modified (with the addition of hundreds of small metal balls) to enhance their anti-personnel effect.
The Hizbollah problem is that they are firing unguided rockets at a handful of targets (residential areas) within 20 kilometers (the range of their 122mm rocket) of the border. These rockets will only hit something if you fire a lot of them (several dozen is best) and aim them properly. But the Hizbollah rocket teams, operating at night, and under constant threat of discovery by Israeli aircraft and UAVs above, must move quickly. This apparently means that careful placement of the launchers is not a high priority. That can be seen by the increasing number of rockets landing in unoccupied areas. On some days, the Hizbollah rockets don’t kill or wound anyone inside Israel.
Meanwhile, the Israelis, using guided weapons (missiles and smart bombs), are trying to avoid civilian casualties. They have a more difficult time of it, because nearly all their bombs and missiles hit what they are aimed at. Still, that has resulted in one dead civilian for every two or three bombs and missiles used. That’s an unprecedented reduction in “collateral damage.” But it isn’t getting reported that way. And when one Israeli bomb apparently killed over fifty civilians, the Arab world cried “war crime.” However, when Arabs were asked how they would respond to a similar hit on Israeli civilians, they believed that would be a “great victory.” Same attitude was seen back in World War II, when, early in the war, German and British bombers were hitting each others civilians.
For many Arabs, and their Western supporters, objectivity has been tossed aside, and reality twisted to conform to more popular views. Israel was attacked by a terrorist group, whose ultimate goal is the destruction of Israel and establishment of a worldwide religious dictatorship. Yet many see Israel as the aggressor, for defending itself too vigorously. As a democracy, Israel is responding to its public opinion, which is solidly behind the response to Hizbollah aggression.
This is very much an Information War, where keeping facts to yourself is a matter of life and death. Hizbollah can only make vague assertions that it has not been hurt. To provide any accurate information would only aid the Israelis. Same thing on the other side. Although, as a democracy, with a free press, the Israelis can’t manage the news as well as Hizbollah, the Israeli military does keep details of what they are doing secret. This prevents Hizbollah from knowing any more about what tactics and techniques the Israelis are using.
That said, the Israelis appear to be approaching the destruction of Hizbollah in a methodical fashion. The first two weeks were spent hitting Hizbollah targets that were obvious, and some non-obvious ones obtained from agents on the ground or within Hizbollah. While these air attacks appeared to hit things that all Lebanese used, like highway overpasses and bridges,. on closer examination, the bombs were placed where they would do temporary damage (just taking down some of the roadbed), rather than much longer term, and expensive to repair, damage (to main supports). This detail was noticed by many Lebanese.
The campaign against the Hizbollah rockets proceeds on several levels at once. When rocket storage facilities are found, they are attacked quickly, before the rockets can be launched. Many of the rockets were stored under residences, schools and mosques. The Hizbollah plan was to have launch teams that could quickly take out the rockets, set them up in launchers, and fire them. Since firing the rockets would give away the position to the Israelis, Hizbollah learned not to try and use the same position twice. If all the rockets in a storage area could not be fired, then the unfired ones had to be moved.
Israel has hundreds of aircraft, UAVs and helicopters equipped with night vision sensors, and capable to patrolling the roads and hills along the border. The Israelis tried to take advantage of the size and range characteristics of the Hizbollah rockets. The most common rocket, the 122mm one, weighs 150 pounds and is nine feet long. But it’s range is only twenty kilometers. Since most of northern Israel is sparsely populated, you have to launch the 122mm rockets within a few kilometers of the border to have any chance of hitting anything. But any vehicle moving on the road, that looked like it could carry these rockets, was subject to attack. The Israeli night stalking tactics appear to have put the Hizbollah launch teams under a lot of pressure. Once rockets were out in the open and being set up, they were vulnerable to attack. Some of these launch sites were hit before the rockets could be sent on their way. This was obvious, because, first, there was an explosion, then secondary explosions and some rockets flying off in various directions. The Israelis learned that hitting the launch sites would catch rockets that had not launched, or others that could not be moved away yet.
Death from above was a bigger problem for the larger rockets, that could reach deeper into Israel. These rockets had the range, but they were still unguided. You needed a special launcher, and some time to get the rockets lined up just so, in order to hit a large town or city 50-70 kilometers inside Israel. Few of these have been launched, especially after the first two weeks. Even larger rockets, that can reach Tev Aviv, make an even more distinctive sight at night, to Israeli sensors. Several of these very large rockets have already been caught in the open, and destroyed. Neither side is saying how many of these very large missiles there are left. But Hizbollah will continue trying to move them into position, and Israeli troops will continue trying to prevent that.
To that end, more and more Israeli ground troops have been going into southern Lebanon over the last two weeks. At first, the Israelis sent in small patrols of very highly trained troops. These were there, in part, to confirm intelligence (from air recon and agents) of exactly what Hizbollah had on the ground. This phase has apparently been completed, for there are now at least half a dozen Israeli infantry battalions roaming around southern Lebanon. There was also a raid, some 70 kilometers north of the border, where Hizbollah big shots, or one of the Israeli captives, was believed to be.
With more Israeli troops on the ground in Lebanon, expect more of these raids. That’s because many of the Lebanese down south are Christians and Druze, who cooperated with the Israelis during the 18 year Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon (to prevent the rocket launches going on right now), and these people were not treated well by Hizbollah, when Hizbollah pushed aside Lebanese police and border guards, after the Israelis left. There’s a lot of information to be obtained from these Lebanese, and a willingness to give it up.
Hizbollah has over a hundred bunkers throughout southern Lebanon. These will be taken out, one by one, using smart bombs or explosive charges. These bunkers are death traps for Hizbollah, although many of them have escape tunnels that may, or may not, work. Many of the Hizbollah fighters gunmen in the south are essentially on suicide missions. There are a limited number of these suicide fighters. While Hizbollah can get more volunteers, because of the war fever, you can’t train the volunteers to be useful in a short time.
It’s a war of attrition, where neither side is willing to reveal what their score is. Hizbollah believes time is on its side, but this appears to be more imaginary than real. The fact of the matter is that Hizbollah cannot win. Israel is fighting for its very existence, while Hizbollah is fighting to preserve a warlord army in a democracy that, so far, has avoided taking control of southern Lebanon for fear of starting another civil war. Hizbollah is a militant religious group subsidized by foreigners (Iran and Syria), that both Israelis and Lebanese want gone. By Hizbollah’s twisted logic, they will have “won” if they still have any presence in Lebanon after this is all over. One outcome that is certain is that Hizbollah will have once more demonstrated that terrorism cannot destroy democracy, no matter how fashionable the terrorists have become among people who should know better.
Meanwhile, the Palestinians are cheering on Hizbollah, but otherwise left in the shadows because of a lack of media attention. Egypt is hosting negotiations to obtain the release of an Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas. The Palestinians are inclined to give up the Israeli soldier, in return for some kind of economic relief. Since Hamas took over in March, most foreign aid has stopped and the Palestinian economy is hurting.
Nice updates george…Thanks