Israel warns of "extreme action" to free a soldier captured by Palestinian militants

Lancer44 · July 25, 2006, 11:33pm

Her is an official US report about current situation.
Quite interesting and free from journalists opinions.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33566.pdf

Lancer44

Nickdfresh · July 25, 2006, 11:34pm

Yeah well, they’ve also figured out what Israel was doing as well (and btw, I not apologizing for Hezbollah)

UN attack looks deliberate: Annan
From correspondents in Rome
26jul06

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan today said he was “shocked” at Israel’s “apparently deliberate targeting” of a UN post in Lebanon, in which up to four UN observers were killed.

Mr Annan described the strike as a “co-ordinated artillery and aerial attack on a long established and clearly marked UN post.”

He said it took place “despite personal assurances given to me by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that UN positions would be spared Israeli fire.”

"Furthermore, General Alain Pelligrini, the UN Force Commander in south Lebanon, had been in repeated contact with Israeli officers throughout the day on Tuesday, stressing the need to protect that particular UN position from attack.

"I call on the Government of Israel to conduct a full investigation into this very disturbing incident and demand that any further attack on UN positions and personnel must stop.

“The names and nationalities of those killed are being withheld pending notification of their families. I extend sincere condolences to the families of our fallen peacekeepers.”

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19916610-1702,00.html

Nickdfresh · July 25, 2006, 11:53pm

“They” is more or less a handful of Jihadists. Most of the Lebanese actually loved us while we helped them get the Syrian despots out…

I’ve always admired Israel and certainly don’t apologize for the Hezbollah cunts. But their offensive, and some of the free pass they are granted by Americans, irritates me…

George_Eller · July 26, 2006, 5:29am

Thanks for the very informative link Lancer,

I’ve only read about half of it (got home late this evening), but plan to read the rest tomorrow.

Catch you later,
George

Lancer44 · July 26, 2006, 12:56pm

Thanks George, always my pleasure

Best regards,

…Your’s and others humble servant…

Lancer44

George_Eller · July 26, 2006, 3:36pm

Israel: Aftermath
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060726.aspx

July 24, 2006: Israel advanced into southern Lebanon, seizing three hilltop villages. Each village was defended by 100-200 Hizbollah fighters, who were killed or captured. UN observers continued to observe along the border. Today the UN peacekeepers 45 Israeli air or artillery strikes, and twelve Hizbollah missile launches. The UN force has largely been useless, with Hizbollah intimidating the UN troops into either backing off, or even cooperating with terrorist operations. Israel suspects that some of the peacekeepers may now be acting as observers for Hizbollah.

George_Eller · July 26, 2006, 3:37pm

Israel: Aftermath
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060726.aspx

July 25, 2006: Israel said it would clear a security zone along the Lebanese border, Everyone would be expelled, and anyone who entered would be fired upon. The depth of the zone was left unclear. It could be as much as 20 kilometers, or more. The zone would eventually be turned over to an acceptable (competent) international peacekeeping force. So far, there have been few offers of troops for this peacekeeping force. The peacekeepers would have to deal with Hizbollah, which in the past has shown no reluctance to threaten, or even attack, UN peacekeepers. Several hundred thousand Shia have fled their homes in southern Lebanon, and the presence of these UN troops would allow the refugees to return. But mixed in with the refugees would be Hizbollah operators, who would try to reestablish Hizbollah’s military presence in the south.

A Hizbollah official admitted that they did not expect this kind of response when Hizbollah invaded Israel, ambushed some Israeli troops and took two of them captive. Most Lebanese don’t believe this. While Hizbollah has been able to muster public support throughout Lebanon and the Arab world, they know that in the aftermath of all this, despite declaring a victory, they are already being blamed for causing a disaster, and will suffer substantial losses in the aftermath of this war. Hizbollah will lose control of much of south Lebanon, and other Lebanese Shia political parties are already maneuvering to grow at Hizbollah’s expense. While most Lebanese cheer Hizbollah publicly, privately they see all this as a ploy to restore Syrian and Iranian control over Lebanon. This control was broken last year with the expulsion of Syrian troops from Lebanon. The Christian, Sunni and Druze parties thought they had a deal with Hizbollah (the main Shia party) to keep Syria (who still believes large chunks of eastern Lebanon should be part of Syria) out.

An Israeli bomb hit a UN observation post on the eastern portion of the border, killing four UN troops (from Austria, China, Canada and Finland).

George_Eller · July 26, 2006, 3:38pm

Israel: Aftermath
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20060726.aspx

July 26, 2006: Israel expressed regret over the accidental bombing of the UN observation post yesterday. Meanwhile, UN officials on the ground in Lebanon admit that Hizbollah has been deliberately mixing in with civilians for protection. Most of the Lebanese casualties have been caused by this tactic, as the Israelis must either not attack Hizbollah troops and weapons, or fire and hit the Lebanese civilians adjacent to the Hizbollah target. This has resulted in some 2,000 Lebanese casualties (about 20 percent of them dead) so far. Israel has suffered about 360 casualties. Some 80 percent of these have been civilians, injured by nearly a thousand Hizbollah rockets fired into northern Israel. As a result of this, nearly a million Israelis have been spending a lot of time in bomb shelters, and economic activity in northern Israel has been hampered. The years of Hizbollah rocket attacks has prepared the Israelis for the massive use of rockets now. Most Israelis have access to bomb shelters, and Israeli civil defense measures are pretty efficient. Such was not the case in Lebanon, although Hizbollah had bunkers for its own personnel. But most Lebanese civilians were left unprotected against some 2,000 Israeli bomb and artillery attacks.

Israeli troops are moving to capture Hizbollah observation posts and bunkers used by the rocket launching crews. The 14,000 Hizbollah rockets are stored all over southern Lebanon, usually in homes, Mosques or public buildings. The launching crews take the rockets out, and either launch them right away, or move them to nearby launch sites. Although the Israeli air attacks destroyed over a hundred rocket storage sites, there are still enough remaining to enable Hizbollah to fire up to 90 rockets a day. However, the average is down 30-50 percent from the peak rates of over a hundred a day.

Hizbollah knows, however, that as long as they can launch at least one rocket a day, they can claim victory. This is because Arabs no longer expect to be able to defeat Israel militarily, so that if the Arab force is still fighting, it is considered a victory. While ludicrous, this attitude has been widely accepted throughout the Middle East. However, this twisted logic is beginning to fray, and an increasing number of Arabs are questioning it. But in the short term, it still works. And right now, the short term is all that Hizbollah cares about. Even if the Israelis push Hizbollah back 20 kilometers from the border, they can get longer range rockets from Syria, and continue firing into Israel.

Israeli military operations continue in Gaza, to find a kidnapped Israeli soldier. In the three weeks since the soldier was taken, there have been nearly 400 Palestinian casualties, about ten times the Israeli losses. The Palestinians are now willing to make a deal to release the Israeli soldier, a stop to the Palestinian rocket attacks, in return for a ceasefire. The Palestinians are suffering far more from the violence, than the Israelis, and Palestinian public opinion is beginning to show it.

George_Eller · July 26, 2006, 4:26pm

Back from the Front
Video Clip

FOX News’ Shep Smith talks to Israeli troops back from fighting in Lebanon.

Copy and paste link below:

javascript:videoPlayer(‘072406/072406_studiob_soldiers’,‘Back From the Front’,‘FNL’,‘acc’,‘World’,’-1’);

SEE ALSO:

Staging Area
Fox News Video Clip on same webpage as above:

Israeli forces wait for call to enter southern Lebanon.

George_Eller · July 26, 2006, 5:11pm

Staging Area
Fox News Video Clip

Israeli forces wait for call to enter southern Lebanon

Copy and paste link below: (after pasting - backspace “L” in ‘World’ before hitting go)

javascript:newVideo(‘072606/072606_hemmer_staging’,‘FNL’,‘Staging%20Area’,‘World’,’-1’);

SS_Tiger · July 26, 2006, 8:41pm

Thanks George, that is worrying that the UN troops may be working with Hezbollah. Maybe that is the reason those UN troops were killed today, the Israelis thought they were aiding Hezbollah?

George_Eller · July 26, 2006, 8:54pm

You’re welcome Tiger,

I wonder myself about yesterday’s incident as the article of July 24th kind of hints at that possibility. Don’t know if we will ever know for sure.

Panzerknacker · July 27, 2006, 12:06am

I usually support Israel against the terrorist …but this time is too much…the Israeli bombings must be stopped.

George_Eller · July 27, 2006, 1:15am

Hi Panzerknacker,

The bombings have definitely not been good for Israel’s image, particularly the civilian casualties. Although,

“UN officials on the ground in Lebanon admit that Hizbollah has been deliberately mixing in with civilians for protection. Most of the Lebanese casualties have been caused by this tactic, as the Israelis must either not attack Hizbollah troops and weapons, or fire and hit the Lebanese civilians adjacent to the Hizbollah target. This has resulted in some 2,000 Lebanese casualties (about 20 percent of them dead) so far. Israel has suffered about 360 casualties. Some 80 percent of these have been civilians, injured by nearly a thousand Hizbollah rockets fired into northern Israel.”
Still, it is very tragical. How much could have been avoided - I don’t know. I’m just observing from the sidelines and not privy to the intelligence information upon which they are making their decisions.

Israel Expresses ‘Deep Regret’ for Deaths of 4 U.N. Workers in Lebanon

Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Fox News
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,205643,00.html

NABATIYEH, Lebanon — Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expressed his “deep regret” to United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on Wednesday for the deaths of four U.N. observers in southern Lebanon after an Israeli airstrike on a U.N. post in the region Tuesday.

Four U.N. observers were killed when an Israeli airstrike struck their post the night before, Lebanese officials confirmed. Olmert promised a thorough investigation of the incident and said the results would be presented to Annan.

Ireland demanded Wednesday an explanation from Israel after the top-ranking Irish army officer in Lebanon complained that Israel ignored warnings that its forces were in danger of hitting United Nations observer posts.

The government summoned Ambassador Daniel Megiddo a day after the four were killed — within hours of six warning calls from Lt. Col. John Molloy, according to well-placed Irish sources.

Molloy, the top Irish officer in the United Nations’ UNIFIL peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, spoke by phone Wednesday morning to Defense Minister Willie O’Dea and the commander of Ireland’s army, Lt. Gen. Jim Sreenan.

Two well-placed sources, one military and one in the government, said Molloy complained he had called Israeli military liaison officers six times to point out that Israeli shellfire and aircraft munitions were landing dangerously close to more than one U.N. installation, including the one that suffered a direct hit Tuesday night

Separately, an initial United Nations report Wednesday said its personnel made 10 warning calls in total before the attack. Reportedly, U.N. officials in New York and Lebanon repeatedly protested to Israel that a patrol base was coming under regular fire in the hours before an Israeli bomb leveled the building and killed at least three of the four unarmed military observers inside, a top peacekeeping official said Wednesday.

Lebanese officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press, said rescue workers were trying to extricate the fourth body from the wrecked building.

Annan said he was shocked by the “apparently deliberate targeting by Israeli Defense Forces of a U.N. observer post in southern Lebanon.”

In response, Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Dan Gillerman expressed his “deep regret” for the deaths, but denied Israel hit the post intentionally.

“I am shocked and deeply distressed by the hasty statement of the secretary-general, insinuating that Israel has deliberately targeted the U.N. post,” he said, calling the assertions “premature and erroneous.”

One of the dead was identified as Chinese U.N. observer Du Zhaoyu, China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Israel’s ambassador to Beijing was summoned Wednesday morning and asked to convey China’s request that Israel fully investigate the incident and issue an apology to the victim’s relatives.

“We are deeply shocked by this incident and strongly condemn it,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said in the statement.

The other three UN observers were from Austria, Canada and Finland.

George_Eller · July 27, 2006, 1:16am

Hizbollahs Clever Plan for Victory
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/20060721.aspx

July 21, 2006: Hizbollah appears to have a lot of confidence in their ability to use Information War techniques to foil any Israeli attempt to defeat them. While the Israelis have overwhelming military superiority, Hizbollah has some serious assets of its own. For example;

Hizbollah has the support of the Shia Arab population in Lebanon. Shia comprise about 35 percent of Lebanese. While there are other Shia factions, Hizbollah has the most street cred. That’s because Hizbollah got declared the victor (in Arab minds) when Israel withdrew from their south Lebanon security zone (to prevent Hizbollah rockets from threatening northern Israel) in 2000. Israel left because the constant skirmishing with Hizbollah was getting a few Israeli soldiers killed each year, and this was becoming politically unacceptable within Israel. So the UN brokered a deal for the Israeli withdrawal. But Hizbollah declared the withdrawal a military victory over Israel. This made Hizbollah heroes in the eyes of Lebanese Shia, and other Arabs in general.

While part of that 2000 deal for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon included the Lebanese army taking control of the border, Hizbollah kept control of southern Lebanon for itself. Hizbollah is safe in the knowledge that the rest of the world will forget that part of the deal. The other Lebanese were not happy with Hizbollah retaining control of southern Lebanon, but did not want to start another civil war by trying to disarm Hizbollah (another part of the UN withdrawal deal that was ignored and forgotten, by everyone except Israel.)

Therefore, Hizbollah can always hide among the Lebanese Shia population, which is willing to protect, or at least hide, their heroes. That might not work, because there are only 3.8 million Lebanese, and only 1.3 million Shia. But Hizbollah has other allies outside the country.

In addition to it’s major sponsor, Iran, Hizbollah can also rely on Syria (run by a Shia minority, and propped up by Iran). But Hizbollah’s biggest ally is world media, European public opinion, and Hizbollah’s ability to portray itself as the victim. While Hizbollah has made no secret of its goal of destroying Israel (as has Iran), Hizbollah has cleverly set up its defenses in southern Lebanon so as to maximize civilian casualties if Israel ever attacked. For example, when thousands of rockets were brought in from Iran (via Syria) over the last six years, they were stored in special rooms or basements in schools, Mosques and homes. Civilians were given no choice in this matter, and many Shia in the south were proud to help house weapons to be used against Israel. Fewer of these civilians were willing to get killed when Israeli bombs or artillery shells came to destroy these rockets. Israel knew what Hizbollah was doing, and that’s why Israel did not go after the rockets until now. To bomb the rocket supplies would have killed civilians, and without a Hizbollah attack on Israel, the PR and diplomatic backlash would have made such attacks too costly.

But Hizbollah is calculating that enough dead Lebanese civilians will cause European nations, and even the UN, to lean on Israel (perhaps even an embargo) and force a halt to the bombings. Hizbollah could even halt its rocket attacks, for a while anyway, and declare another victory. The two captured Israeli soldiers would never be surrendered except for hundreds of imprisoned terrorists. If Hizbollah gets enough world public opinion on their side, even this proposed trade will be seen as “reasonable”, and Israel will be condemned for refusing to go along.

Hizbollah does have some risk exposure. For example, Israel could get lucky, (or Hizbollah gets sloppy), find where the two captured soldiers are, and rescue them. Israel could also reestablish their security zone, and convince the Lebanese government that they could only get that back if the Lebanese army came in and replaced Hizbollah. The Lebanese could pull that off, by promising (secretly) Hizbollah that they could return and continue to operate against Israel.

The Lebanese are also villains in all of this, as it was their unwillingness to disarm Hizbollah, and take charge of the border, in violation of the UN agreement, that made it possible for Hizbollah to attack Israel. The UN is also at fault, for not doing anything in six years to see that the 2000 agreement was carried out. Hizbollah knows they are not going to destroy Israel this time around, but are pretty much assured of another propaganda victory.

The UN is talking about sending in peacekeepers, but they have had several thousand peacekeepers along the border for decades. The problem is that the peacekeepers have no authority to do anything about Hizbollah, or any other terrorists. It’s unlikely that any nation would be willing to supply peacekeepers for a force that could go after Hizbollah. That would be a nasty fight, with all manner of bad publicity. Everyone knows Hizbollah is good at spinning the media, and doesn’t want to be on the wrong end of such spin.

So, despite the moral, military and intelligence advantages of Israel, Hizbollah is confident that growing European anti-Semitism (and anti-Israeli attitudes), media willingness to portray Hizbollah as a victim, and Lebanese unwillingness to do anything that would risk another civil war (the last went from 1975 to 1990), they can survive anything the Israelis throw at them, and come out a winner (in the minds of Arabs, at the very least).

George_Eller · July 27, 2006, 2:39am