At this stage, I suspect that something resembling an understanding has been worked out between Russia and the Ukraine about where this will end. It may involve an enhanced Russian role (short of occupation) in the Crimea, with Russia allowing pro-Russian resistance in east Ukraine to be put down gently by the Ukrainians without significant objection. There is no real prospect of military intervention on the part of the western “Powers”. The EU will huff and puff, but it cannot, in the end of the day, do without Russian natural gas. As for the US, unless they want to provoke an “all-out Superpower confrontation”, there is little they can do beyond implementing sanctions that will have little effect in Russia other than to irritate, and suspend diplomatic and trade contacts that will only damage everybody. I think we have seen the beginning of the end, as far as this dispute is concerned. Nonetheless, the precedent that this poses is disturbing - far more so than Georgia, etc. The re-emergence of something close to old-fashioned land-grabbing on the part of a “mature” power like Russia scarcely bodes well for the future. Yours from the Sudatenland, JR.
By the way, tankgeezer, thanks for the tip. I shall start stocking up on Bovril and carrots immediately … Very best regards, JR.
Nothing that has happened in between invalidates my most recent appraisal of the situation. The notion that Vlad has no “boots on the ground” is obviously ridiculous. At the very least, the suspiciously well-organized pro-Russian “local militia” of the Crimea are receiving advice from Russian technical advisers, and their strategy is obviously Kremlinesque. More than that, it seems probable that their ranks are stiffened by Russian regulars. The end-result will be that Crimea will become, if not part of Russia, a sort of Russian satrapy within the Ukraine. At the same time, positive Russian support for pro-Russian elements in eastern Ukraine seems very half-hearted. An interesting question is whether Vlad will permit an eventual settlement to include a very long-fingered option for the Ukraine to enter into even a preliminary association with the European Union; if he does, it will be a very, very long time in coming. In any event, the bumbling European Union “principes” have been made to look like fractious fools like never before, at least as far as foreign affairs are concerned. A possible settlement ? Not sure. The ethnic Ukrainian population of western and southern Ukraine are heirs to a complex political tradition that is less than friendly to the idea of Russian domination - whether their standard bearers are moderate democrats or Ukrainian neo-Nazis, with every shade in between. Watch this space. Or, perhaps better for your peace of mind, don’t. Yours from the Bovril factory, taking pot-shots at rabbits, JR.
So … the Crimean assembly has voted to convert the planned referendum on greater autonomy for the region within the Ukraine to a referendum on secession from the Ukraine and integration in the Russian Federation. We started out with a Putin v. EU bumblers diplomatic chess game and have now reached … this ? I still find it difficult to believe that there will actually be a shooting war here. However, events over the last few weeks are going to leave a heap of resentments that will bode ill for the future of the Ukraine. The EU will really have to look hard at its foreign policy aspirations, too. Unless it can do better than this, Brussels should really stick to regulating the contents of jams, jellies and chestnut puree. Their incompetent and ill-advised courtship of the Ukraine must bear a substantial responsibility for starting this business in the first place. Best regards, JR.
Frau Merkel has now waded into this row, threatening serious political, economic, diplomatic etc. consequences if Tsar Vlad does anything even more naughty in the Ukraine. Not sure if Vlad will care much about this. Mind you, his oligarch and oligarch-hangers-on may find their ability to visit the hated West curtailed a bit irksome - what is Harrods without Russians ? Those of us who have to live in the Hated West (of Europe) might find the absence of Russians an improvement … but never mind. One thing I will say - given the choice between being attacked by Frau Merkel and being attacked by the Panzers, I am not sure that I would pick the Panzers … Yours from the citadel of Sebastopol , JR.
It feels like the whole North Korean situation again. The countries will be talking trash and threaten other countries but I doubt any action will be taking place. I mean the Olympics are coming up in 2 years I doubt Russia is going to ruin that.
Interesting point, Kilroy - I shall revert. In the meantime - Happy St Patrick’s Day ! Beir beannacht, JR.
So … the European Union bumblers have undertaken to sign a provisional version of an association agreement with the current, anti-Russian provisional government of the Ukraine, and propose to advance the conclusion of similar provisional agreements with Georgia and Moldova. … The arrogance and ignorance of the EU élite was largely responsible for triggering this crisis. Now, having dug a hole, they propose to continue digging. We may not be heading for a shooting war - but Cold War Two is definitely on the cards. I can understand why the Baltic States, Germany and the surprisingly belligerent Scandinavians are taking a relatively aggressive position in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and (possible) annexationist activity in eastern Ukraine. After all, to take the Baltic States in particular, they have their own problems with substantial Russian minorities. If (and I doubt this), Tsar Vlad has blundered into a position of aggressive “protection” of Little Russian Brothers, they would have much to fear from future Russian actions. The worrying thing about all this is that the EU, Russia and even the US seem to be enmeshed in an “events” process governed by conflicting politico/strategic imperatives that is careering on beyond the control of anybody. Even without a shooting war, we are tethering on the brink of a trade/economic war that could result, most significantly, in Vlad turning off the gas flowing to the Baltic States, Moldova, Germany and France. How would that play ? Not likely to do anybody much good. Cold War II here we come. Gods help us ! Best regards, JR.
:shock:The forceful capture of a Ukrainian naval base - using, allegedly, “automatic weapons and stun grenades” (an odd combination) - is a very worrying development. Apart from the humiliation for the Ukrainian state in seeing its officers led off in hand-ties, there has been little comment on the fact that this development implies a Russian intention to exclude the Ukrainian Navy from effective access to the Med - a development that would make the Ukrainian Navy totally redundant. One wonders how much of this provocation the Ukraine can take before considerations of self preservation and pride induce them to shoot back. This leaves aside altogether the blatant illegal nature of this latest provocation. Vlad is not stupid and, presumably, has some view of a possible political settlement to this mess. However, recent Russian actions at military and political level seem to me to make this possibility increasingly difficult to achieve. And now we have NATO (US) generals calling for increasing troop deployment in Germany and even further east to make the possibility of war less likely. (!). Who was it that said that "military intelligence was a contradiction in terms ? Yours from the Odessa Steps, JR.
I recall reading over the weekend that some Ukrainian senior officers were upset that no one fired back at Russians assaulting the bases because the commanders on the ground wanted to avoid bloodshed. I can understand Ukrainian junior officers not wanting to get their men wiped out. I suspect intrusions into the Ukraine proper would result in a shooting confrontation. There have already been some confrontations and the Russians test limits. I read one article where it seems the Russians are relying heavily on Spetsnaz special forces in order to maintain a sort of plausible deniability or sorts. Mainly they’ve been driving around in unmarked military and heavy duty civilian vehicles supposedly, casing possible routes and probing Ukrainian defenses…
As I suggested earlier, the least bad solution of this problem is likely to lie in Ukrainian de facto acceptance of the Russian takeover in the Crimea (which Vlad is moving rapidly to make irreversible), while the Russians back off (even take steps to cool the situation) in eastern Ukraine. Not very legal - but it has a certain logic. Frankly, the association of the Crimea with Ukraine has no more logic to it than its association with Russia - the presence of “Russia” there dates from the Tsarist Empire, and was one of the many (often inconvenient) consequences of Russia’s expansion into this region in the 18th and 19th centuries. An odd parallel occurs - prior to the expansion of the Russian Empire into the Crimea, the Tatars were the habitual inhabitants of this area, going back centuries. A parallel with the position of Native Americans, perhaps ? In any event, it is to be hoped that this lamentable sequence of events, initiated by the bunglers in Brussels, will stop short of any sort of shooting war. The outbreak of Cold War Two is bad enough … JR.
Although this wanders off the trail a bit, it does kind of fit the issue. This is presently om the white house petition site. (not that it has a snowball’s chance in Hell of becoming anything.) https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/alaska-back-russia/SFG1ppfN
Interesting. Would Vlad want Alaska back - if Alaska came with Sarah Palin ? Just kidding, JR.
Not sure she would be in the deal, but I did say that if the Russian Federation wanted Alaska, they would have to take Obama & Co. as well. I also mentioned that they could probably buy California for around 50 bucks, but they would have to saw it off, and tow it home themselves. 
14 April, 2014 - there is now a horrible possibility that within the next 12 hours, the shooting will start in earnest, as a column of Ukrainian National Guard gendarmes rolls from Kiev eastward. Hard to know whether this lot are any less an ill-trained armed rabble than are the pro-Russian rebels. However, the latter appear (as in the Crimea) to be supported by Russian Special Forces, who are a different kettle of fish altogether. The developments in the Crimea were humiliating for the Ukraine but, on the whole, they were relatively non-violent; that is not true of affairs in eastern Ukraine at the moment. The Ukrainian government may have arrived at the point at which they need to take very strong measures or fail in their fundamental obligations to their state. On the other side, if Russian Special Forces become involved in a shooting war with the Ukrainian forces, Vlad may find it difficult to avoid sending in his panzers to support them. When I started this thread, the possibility of a shooting war was a fairly remote nightmare. Unless somebody gets a grip on this situation, the nightmare may be with us very shortly. I am not optimistic … Yours from an east Ukrainian police station, dodging petrol bombs, JR.
The Ukrainians are going to shoot back this time…
Don’t worry guys, EU leaders will probably meet NEXT WEEK to discuss the Ukrainian crisis…
It’s pretty good idea to follow Ukrainian twitter accounts. Try english version of “euromaidan”. They’ve got all the latest news.
I’ve just read that Ukrainian intelligence service identified a man in charge of separatists in Sloviansk as Igor Strielkov, GRU officer - russian military intelligence service.
Three “Pro-Russians” reported shot to death within the last few hours. I was viewing a speech from our Minister for European Affairs in our Senate a little while ago. He referred (correctly) to the dangers posed by “momentum” in these circumstances, citing the (distressingly appropriate) precedent of Autumn, 1914. Meanwhile, a number of Ukrainian Army units have shown “restraint” to the extent of surrendering their arms and vehicles to “pro-Russian” civilians. The Cossack Winked ? Perhaps. However, the Kiev government certainly has forces at its disposal less likely to “wink” when faced even with unarmed resistance. “Momentum” here we come ?". Yours from Sarajevo, JR.
