25 April, and the Dogs of War are growling. Could it actually happen ? Mind you, I think the Ukrainian notion that the Russians are trying to start WW3 is off the wall. If the Russians do invade, the West will, essentially, let them do what they like, without effective (certainly military) response. On the other hand … have “World leaders” forgotten the old days of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) ? Have they forgotten all those old nukes still sitting around in their silos and submarines (like Finn McCumhaill or Hogar Danske in their caves) waiting to be called to action ? It could begin to feel like the good old days of the Cuban missile crisis, soon … Yours from the Café at the End of the Universe, JR.
The few people I know who live in that neck of the woods seem to feel Ukraine is the unreasonable party. I can’t say as I go for that idea altogether,but not living there leaves me a bit at the mercy of their perspective.Despite whatever idiosyncrasies the leadership of Ukraine may labor under, I still will not think of Putin as balanced, or benevolent. I do wonder though, what is really going on behind all of this. It is the Puppeteer who operates the Marionettes, but who is it that whispers in his ear?
Putin is completely mental, I find it a bit vile that some have adopted him as some sort of cause celeb against “The New World Order” or some bizarre thing. He’s decrying the Ukrainians for tepidly and very mildly performing what he did in Chechnya. Can someone invade Chechnya now to save the Chechens against Russian-speakers?
2 May - a fair bit of shooting in east Ukraine in the last 24 hours. The Ukrainians appear to be edging towards a more vigorous military response to what are really outrageous provocations from secessionists in the east, having brought up more reliable regular Ukrainian troops. What next ? I am not at all convinced that Moscow is really in control of these “pro-Russian forces” in east Ukraine. It would not - by a long chalk - be the first time that Russia was led by the nose by “little Russian (or Slav) Brothers” intent on drawing them in to support a local agenda. I am not convinced that Vlad at all wants to invade eastern Ukraine - but very fundamental and long-standing Russian policy imperatives may in the end put him in a position of having little choice, thus destroying any chance of a relatively peaceful solution involving Russia annexing the Crimea, but “cooling off” the east Ukrainian “pro-Russian” insurgency. I am not at all sure that the Kremlin has the power to do this without doubling back on a fundamental policy imperative. Things are not looking good … Yours from the Tractor Factory, JR.
Oh PLEASE…Shoot back?? There pussies and you know it. They let Russia march right in and take over Crimea. Half their army is Russian born. The Ukrainians couldn’t shoot back if they wanted to because they know Mother Russia will cut off their oil and put them back into the dark ages. You don’t shoot a gift horse in the mouth. Um, How much Money does Ukraine owe Russia? Um, Where are they getting their oil from? …And you say their going to shoot back? Yaun…
Russian self-propelled guns parade in Moscow today, in celebration of Victory Day, commemorating the victory of the Soviet Union in the Great Patriotic War. Next stop Kiev ? I hope not … JR.
The triumphal parade proceeded to the background of wartime military music - including “The Sacred War” - the music to which the rescuers of Moscow departed to the front in 1941, often to their deaths. I hope that Vlad is not going seriously old-fashioned ? Yours from the War Room, JR.
I wonder what’s the obsession with military parades in Eastern Europe? I’m 46 years old and I don’t recall ever seeing a military parade here in the USA like what they have there.
What about China and North Korea?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzP5qr-ZxHY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwEkaGYBdHs
There is a video somewhere of the way these troops are selected to be of exact height and trained to be the robots they are. But if they can fight like they can drill, we’re in trouble.
Here’s their training film.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsOdaGIXpBo
Here is the instructor’s diagram.
http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/diaries/images/heath1.gif
Seriously, it may be more than a coincidence that the goosestep and big military parades are beloved of dictatorships and other repressive regimes.
One could posit all sorts of reasons for it, but the most obvious are that they reinforce the belief of the leadership in their power and demonstrate the power of the leadership to the nation, which I suspect is the primary purpose, and also to other powers, which is probably less effective as those powers probably have intelligence about the real power of the given nation.
It reminds me of the story, probably apocryphal, of Mussolini reviewing his air force and being entertained to sumptuous meals while the planes he had just reviewed were flown to his next stop so he could, unwittingly, inspect them again in the belief that they were another element of his air forces.
When people wonder how, or why the world seems to be losing it’s mind, I usually, and jokingly recommend the wearing of a tinfoil hat to aid in deflecting the “Negative Waves” (Oddball, Kelly’s Heroes) Though in these times of true menace, I have begun to recommend Leadfoil instead. 
Its a good thing Pa built the shelter in the basement back in the 60’s…
Well, the N. Koreans can do okay if they would just use the right music…,http://youtu.be/lwoSFQb5HVk
So - Russia has “recognized” the results of the daft east Ukrainian “referendums”. Not, mind you, that it is suggesting any course of action in particular from now, beyond vaguely outlined “talks” involving (in some unspecified way) the east Ukrainian “pro-Russians”. If, presumably, they can identify any generally representative leaders to take part in such talks on behalf of the “pro-Russians”. What a mess.
The developments of recent days tend to confirm that Putin is not really in control of his “Little Russian Brothers” in the Ukraine, any more than the rickety autocracy of Tsar Nicholas was in control of the Serbian Secret Service and its terroristic adjuncts in 1914. They also confirm that he is most reluctant to do what the Little Russian Brothers have actually said they want him to do - that is, send in the panzers. Problem is that Russian political and strategic imperatives may, ultimately, force him to intervene directly. One would hope not - but it would be very foolish to rule out the possibility.
By the way - the farcical referendums in east Ukraine remind me of an old joke from Soviet days - “there was consternation in the Kremlin today when it was discovered that someone had broken in and stolen next year’s election results.”. One difference - at least in those days the Soviet geriontocrocacy had control on the situation. No such comfort now. Sometimes, I really do miss the old USSR … Yours from the Victory Parade, JR.
What’s wrong or bad with parades? You have a dozens of big parades in US per year, including Guy and lesbian ones;). The Victory military parade in Moscow is rather a mass form of social and historical self-identification.Many people here likes the parades:) It’s not an exclusively Eastern europe tradition.
I got a good laugh out of that.
Unfortunately, it pretty much applies to countless dictatorships and repressive regimes.
Also gay and lesbian ones.
Maybe Putin’s anti-gay control of your computer retyped it as guy? 
Surprising amount of dancing. I thought fun was banned in North Korea.
Reminds me of old joke, attributed to various ‘no fun allowed’ religions which ban pre-marital sex, because it might lead to dancing.
Just to show that military parades don’t have to be big to be impressive.
Chevan, from down here I get the impression that Putin is popular in Russia over the Crimean issue because he exercised Russian power successfully for the first time since the collapse of the USSR; defied the West in doing so; took back what some Russians regard as Russian territory; and that this makes many Russians feel proud rather than humiliated or defeated by the West, and revives their sense of, to use your term, historical self-identification. Obviously that’s an over-simplification of a complex issue in a couple of lines, but how do you see it from your position as a Russian?
On the subject of dancing and strict religions - I am reminded of a comedy sketch from the late, great Irish comedian Dave Allen. It showed Dave, playing the Pope, counseling a young couple on birth control - “First, you takea de record, and then you put it ona de gramophone, and thena you play it !”. The young couple look puzzled. Finally, the husband asks - “Holy Father, that is very interesting … but do you do it before or after making love ?”. The Holy Father replies indignantly, “You do that instead of making love !”. How is that for off-topic … Yours from the Dungeons of the Inquisition, JR.
One major difference between now and 1914 is that we don’t have Germany encouraging the rickety Austro-Hungarians into a war which would involve Russia, to achieve German ambitions.
One major difference between now and WWII is that we don’t have Germany aiming to attack Russia to achieve German ambitions, nor the fervent Western anti-communist sentiment which informed Western policy for much of the inter-war period; was suspended during the latter part of WWII to support the USSR as an ally against Germany and Japan; and resumed with increasing vigour after WWII until the end of the Cold War.
And then Germany, along with other parts outside Russia, became dependent upon Russian energy, which in turn enriched post-communist Russian oligarchs beyond belief.
The current circumstances don’t have any precedent in the past couple of centuries which allow us to predict how things might turn out.