Interesting move by the Little Russian Brothers of the Ukraine (sounds a bit like a band … oh well) who have captured the port city of Novoazovsk from Ukrainian forces. The LRBs appear to have used battle tanks on this occasion; wherever could they have obtained such weapons ? The LRBs themselves could try to justify this move on the basis that a substantial number of Russians live in the southern part of the Donetsk Oblast (a large minority, on recent estimates). Still, the area has been relatively free of unrest up to now. The really interesting thing about the capture of Novoazovsk is the strategic possibilities it suggests, not just for the LRBs, but to their Bearish friend over the border.
Strategic considerations (other than the essentially political one of engendering general instability in Ukraine) have generally been absent in the messy fighting in eastern Ukraine so far. However, this development could be quite different. For one thing, it threatens to unhinge Ukraine’s grip on the southern wing of its “front” against the LRBs/Russians. If the anti-Kiev bridgehead is secured and expanded, this would represent a clear threat to the city of Ternapil (Tarnapol) to the north-west, which is clearly regarded as the strategic key to the area by the Ukrainians. For another, it opens up the disturbing possibility that it could be developed into a drive to secure a “Crimea Corridor” between Russian territory and its newly-acquired possession of Crimea. An extreme version of this would see the LRB/Russian thrust overshooting the Isthmus of Perikop to anchor the prospective “corridor” far to the west on Odessa, a city of majority-Ukrainian ethnic profile, but with a strong historically-based Russian cultural profile. This would substantially undermine the viability of the Ukrainian state.
Could it really go that far ? It is hard to see Putin’s Panzers rolling through Odessa, and yet … if Putin really is riding his luck at this stage, and if neither Ukraine nor its western well-wishers can think up some effective means of stopping him, who knows ? Having proved that the “international community” (including the Russians) do not need Communism to have a Cold War (Cold War II), who is to say that we cannot have a hot one ? Best regards, JR.
