Letter of Mussolini to Hitler, august 25th 1939:
I am replying to your letter which has just been delivered to me by Ambassador von Mackensen.
(1) Concerning the agreement with Russia, I approve of that completely. His Excellency Marshal Goring will tell you that in the discussion which I had with him last April I stated that a rapprochement between Germany and Russia was necessary to prevent encirclement by the democracies.
(2) I consider it desirable to try to avoid a break or any deterioration in relations with Japan, since that would result in Japan’s return to a position close to the democratic powers. With this in mind, I have telegraphed to Tokyo and it appears that after the first surprise of public opinion passed, a better psychological attitude prevails.
(3) The Moscow treaty blockades Rumania and can alter the position of Turkey, which accepted the English loan, but which has not yet signed the treaty of alliance. A new attitude on the part of Turkey would upset all the strategic plans of the French and English in the Eastern Mediterranean.
(4) As regards Poland I have complete understanding for the German position and for the fact that such strained relations cannot continue permanently.
(5) As for the practical position of Italy, in case of a military collision, my point of view is as follows:
If Germany attacks Poland and the conflict remains localized, Italy will afford Germany every form of political and economic assistance which is requested.
If Germany attacks, and Poland’s allies open a counterattack against Germany, I want to let you know in advance that it would be better if I did not take the initiative in military activities in view of the present situation of Italian war preparations, which we have repeatedly previously explained to you, Fuhrer, and to Herr von Ribbentrop.
Our intervention can, therefore, take place at once if Germany delivers to us immediately the military supplies and the raw materials to resist the attack which the French and English especially would direct against us.
At our meetings the war was envisaged for after 1942 and at such time I would have been ready on land, on sea, and in the air according to the plans which had been arranged.
I am also of the opinion that the purely military preparations which have already been undertaken and the others which will be entered upon in Europe and Africa will serve to immobilize important French and British forces.
I consider it my implicit duty as a true friend to tell you the whole truth and inform you about the actual situation in advance. Not to do so might have unpleasant consequences for us all. This is my point of view and since within a short time I must summon the highest governmental bodies of the realm, I ask you to let me know yours as well.
MUSSOLINI
Mussolini himself was saying: I’m not ready for a World War at least until 1942, and I’ve already told you dear Adolf.
When the war was almost won by Hitler (which later decided to loose by himself opening unnecessarily, and at least too soon, a second front with Soviet Union), and the Allies didn’t fight “a second Marna battle” (like il Duce had hoped), Mussolini thought to bet on a fast war already won by Germany.
The Italian Command had given 6 months of time. Over this time, Italy simply didn’t have power, tools, outputs for fighiting alone such a world war. For a world war fighting capability the Italian armed forces still needed at least 3 years of time.
Any day after this “six months” lasting war, was a day closer towards the Italian defeat. That’s all. Other mistakes done or not, later, anyway depended on this first decision.
If this decision was encouraged by the famous problem of the secret agreements between Mussolini and Churchill… is another point to study…