Georgia in Crisis: Major Fighting Erupts with Russia

[alephh]

Russian tanks continue to advance deeper into Georgia, as over 100 Russian armored vehicles is being amassed (2km away) against the second largest city Zugdidi (witnessed by Reuters staff photographer Umit Bektas).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080814/ts_nm/georgia_ossetia_zugdidi_dc_2;_ylt=Akuiuz4NL6yGm8dyY0K1bI4wvGUD

Vakhtang Tavberidze, acting harbourmaster in the port of Poti, reported that Russian tanks and peacekeepers had arrived at the military port… “Yesterday they came to the commercial port, but today they only came to the military port. They took away some equipment. This is looting.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSLE126209

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow no longer recognized Georgia’s territorial sovereignty, suggesting the Kremlin was prepared to absorb Abkhazia and South Ossetia [very likely, since formal recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would only encourage separatist movements inside Russia].
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g73K5XXw4SPQSbJ3cbA-WHPs4D7wD92I738G0

Dr Vasily Gorgadze, 52, worked as a surgeon in one of the hospitals in Gori:
“It’s not true that the Georgians have destroyed Tskhinvali. Russian troops were stationed in Tskhinvali and from their base in the city have provoked the Georgian side over a long period. I work in Gori and there was hardly a day when there wasn’t any shelling - virtually every day we had wounded delivered to our hospital - there was no end to Russia’s provocation, all year round. So Georgia had no choice but to defend itself. I’m absolutely convinced that we can live together. If the Russians don’t provoke the situation, Georgians, Ossetians and Abkhazians could live a normal life together.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7561801.stm

_

[Nickdfresh]

@Egorka

That is right Gerogia is autonomus country.
An autonomus country with two break away regions. The conflicts were raging there since colaps of USSR and by far not only because of Russian stir up. The antipaty between Gerogians and Abhazians and Osetians has ows routes. So Georgia in modern times - since 1992 - always had these issues. And as some people argue it is a bit open question if unified Georgia has really been existing since 1992 until today. That is one thing.

Specificly the South Osetian issue has an extra dimention to it: the North Osetia is in Russia. Which means that this was has also internal Russian reason to it - Russias central goverment had to assist South Osetian or rist loosing the main ally of the Federal Goverment in Caucasus.

Of course they do not. Just like US goverment does not like Cuba.

We don’t even notice Cuba anymore, and there were no tactical nuclear missiles placed in Georgia, ever…

[Nickdfresh]

@Chevan

Not true.
You see all the states of former USSR today works and co-operats with West.
Kazahstan, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and est.
But no other state that almost officialy has declared anti-russian way OPENLY except Georgia.
This madman Saakashvily from most beginning has started to use the anti-russian demagogy, that of course is very irritating for all the russians.
Just think yourself - is the anti-american demagogy of Venesuela welcomed in USA?

Yeah, but we haven’t invaded Venezuela yet…

[Nickdfresh]

@Chevan

I would like to call it as NATO piece of exuipment

That looks a lot like Warsaw Pact equipment?

But does the everything USA do in world is not for their profit?

Well, what have we done that’s profitable lately?

What do you mean?

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/njoroge_wachai/2008/08/russias_dangerous_hypocrisy.html

may be , but why your propogandic shit is better than my one?

I don’t know. But some of the lunitic rhetoric coming from both sides there is pretty unsettling…

i heard Journalist “speculations”, it seem they competite with each other - who can invent more loud and more sensless and cruel “scenario”.
Some of them even predicted the start of WW3.
Tupical shit press speculation.
The Rising Sun know what i mean.

I think you should speak for yourself. No one has predicted WWIII, the US is doing nothing substantive, and it is the Russian gov’t calling for a democratic leader to be overthrown…

S-200 indeed, but you are wrong if think that it is TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE to cover all of the pipe with couple of S-200.
The “attack of oil pipe” was just a Georgian Propogandic “action”, one of many , sensless , but West like to believe in it:)

I haven’t heard much about the Georgians on the pipeline to be honest…

This madman (Saakashvili) has PUBLICALLY declared - the Georgia is on the front line of fight with Russia
His slogans emotionaly are nearest to F.Kastro or Hitler speechs.
This is tupical little dirty Further, who is going to solve all their inner problem with “little victorious war”. He is sick.

Um, his rhetoric, although bizarre but not in the way you think, is no more cryptic-fascist than the Russian foreign ministers strange pronouncements…

He openly try to involve the Israel and West into conflict…

LOL Really? When did he do that?

I do understand the American methoods to support “our bastards”, but Nick ,for god’s sake, those bastard should not be … an idiots at least:)
Sometimes you have to watch , whom are you going to support.

They “supported” the Georgian gov’t since the creation of the state and were not supporting him specifically. He was elected in 2003 I think.

[Chevan]

@Nickdfresh

Yeah, but we haven’t invaded Venezuela yet…

HAs Venezuela attacked and killed your soldiers?
Come on, we all pretty know what usially happend with whom is attacking the AMerica.
The Strategical bombings at least is guaranted for everybody.
Besides you have invided Panama already, although it did not attack you first.

[redcoat]

Have to be honest, I’m less than impressed with the Georgian government over its handling of the crisis.
The decision by the Georgian government to send its armed forces into South Ossetia region, just after its had agreed a cease-fire with the separatists of the region, while Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces were present was reckless in the extreme.

The Russians were never going to allow a Georgian military attack on a region in which a majority of the population considers itself Russian to succeed.

[Rising_Sun]

@redcoat

Have to be honest, I’m less than impressed with the Georgian government over its handling of the crisis.
The decision by the Georgian government to send its armed forces into South Ossetia region, just after its had agreed a cease-fire with the separatists of the region, while Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces were present was reckless in the extreme.

The Russians were never going to allow a Georgian military attack on a region in which a majority of the population considers itself Russian to succeed.

Exactly!

I can’t fathom why the Georgian President, or leadership if it was a joint decision, started what they surely had to know was a fight they couldn’t win.

Either the Georgian President / leadership are idiots (which I suspect Chevan is going to endorse :D), or somebody else encouraged them to embark on this suicidal course.

I wouldn’t put it past some clever dick American agency to have an oar in it, playing some devious game to advance their own interests.

[Sergej]

Maybe Sakashvilli hoped Russians will destroy Georgia, and USA will rebuild his country
like Germany after WWII. And if he is a idiot, least he didn’t try to invade Russia.

[Man_of_Stoat]

Or maybe the Russians had the whole thing planned from the outset (how else would they have so many armoured assets and the accompanying logistics chain in position to move so quickly) and THEY were the ones who provoked the Georgians into it? It certainly passes the Occam’s Razor test compared to the other hypotheses floating around.

[redcoat]

@Man_of_Stoat

Or maybe the Russians had the whole thing planned from the outset (how else would they have so many armoured assets and the accompanying logistics chain in position to move so quickly) and THEY were the ones who provoked the Georgians into it? It certainly passes the Occam’s Razor test compared to the other hypotheses floating around.

I’ve no doubt the Russians were, after the build up in tension recently, prepared for such an event, but it was the Georgian governments own decision to launch an attack on South Ossetia, which lead to the Russian response.

[Man_of_Stoat]

Sure, but is this not analogous to the school bully egging on his intended victim to throw the first punch, then decking him completely, and finally saying “but he started it?”

[Rising_Sun]

@Man_of_Stoat

Or maybe the Russians had the whole thing planned from the outset (how else would they have so many armoured assets and the accompanying logistics chain in position to move so quickly) and THEY were the ones who provoked the Georgians into it? It certainly passes the Occam’s Razor test compared to the other hypotheses floating around.

Ockham’s (as a long listener and reader of his, I follow Robyn William’s spelling in his program and book title - http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/ ) Razor is fine for theories in the sciences, but I think it’s a bit hard to apply it to the Georgian situation as there are too many different influences and variables and unknowns.

I’d suggest that the better test for determining what motivated Georgia to act is: Cui bono? i.e Who benefits?

Not that that necessarily points to any one answer being more probable than the others.

As for Russian troop movements etc, that depends upon proximity to bases and Russian preparedness for exactly what happened, which is within the range of events for which competent military commanders prepare in such circumstances. Doesn’t prove anything by itself.

[Rising_Sun]

@Man_of_Stoat

Sure, but is this not analogous to the school bully egging on his intended victim to throw the first punch, then decking him completely, and finally saying “but he started it?”

But where is the Russian egging on which provoked Georgia to attack at that precise moment?

Apart from Putin being away at the Olympics and maybe Georgia thinking it could somehow pull it off in his absence?

[Man_of_Stoat]

Are there any Russian army bases within half an hour’s tank drive from the border with South Ossetia? as I understand it, the time elapsed between the first Georgian rockets being fired and a Russian armoured column crossing the border was so short that it is even in doubt as to which happened first. The Georgians claim that they fired 10 minutes after the Russian column crossed the border, the Russians claimed that the Georgians fired first.

Either way, the Russians had to have massed their armoured assets ready for the off in advance, there is no way that such a response could be “scrambled”. How long does it take to bomb up 100 plus tanks? (Or do the Russians keep their tanks and planes bombed up during peace time as a matter of course?)

[Man_of_Stoat]

@Rising_Sun

But where is the Russian egging on which provoked Georgia to attack at that precise moment?

Apart from Putin being away at the Olympics and maybe Georgia thinking it could somehow pull it off in his absence?

There are several ways that they could have egged them on using the South Ossetian separatists to provoke the response.

[Rising_Sun]

@Man_of_Stoat

Are there any Russian army bases within half an hour’s tank drive from the border with South Ossetia? as I understand it, the time elapsed between the first Georgian rockets being fired and a Russian armoured column crossing the border was so short that it is even in doubt as to which happened first. The Georgians claim that they fired 10 minutes after the Russian column crossed the border, the Russians claimed that the Georgians fired first.

Which suggests that both sides were primed for action.

Maybe the Russians had backup for their peacekeepers for just such a situation. Or, as you imply, they were just lurking over the border and waiting for a chance to attack. After Georgia behaved as it did.

I’d be interested to know if Russian intelligence, whether local or satellite or whatever, about Georgian troop movements forewarned the Russians so that they were ready to roll. If so, that would suggest that Russia was responding to a reasonably apprehended threat rather than carrying out some long term plan to attack Georgia through South Ossetia.

@Man_of_Stoat

Either way, the Russians had to have massed their armoured assets ready for the off in advance, there is no way that such a response could be “scrambled”.

I think this would be right. Unless they had everything fuelled and loaded up with crews kitted up and ready to go, rather like Battle of Britain pilots.

@Man_of_Stoat

Or do the Russians keep their tanks and planes bombed up during peace time as a matter of course?

I wouldn’t be surprised.

I mean, you never know when Hungary or Czechoslovakia will need to be invaded by Russian tanks again, do you?

Not unlike Georgia, it its own reduced modern way.

[Rising_Sun]

@Man_of_Stoat

There are several ways that they could have egged them on using the South Ossetian separatists to provoke the response.

Such as?

Was there some event by the SO’s which provoked the response?

I’m afraid the reporting I’ve seen is long on images of the poor bastards hurt and killed and of burning tanks and refugees etc but short on facts, as distinct from allegations, about exactly how it started.

[Man_of_Stoat]

Such as… fire on something, blow something up, and so on.

I’m not sure at the moment we can find out exactly what sparked it off, Given that we don’t yet know whether the Georgians fired or the Russians crossed the border first.

[Rising_Sun]

@Man_of_Stoat

Such as… fire on something, blow something up, and so on.

Or maybe the Russians did it like the Nazis at Gleiwitz radio station in 1939?

Who knows?

And we know even less because of the controls on information and reporting in that part of the world, by both sides.

@Man_of_Stoat

I’m not sure at the moment we can find out exactly what sparked it off, Given that we don’t yet know whether the Georgians fired or the Russians crossed the border first.

Yeah, and both sides will proclaim their innocent victimhood to the last. Not unlike your bully example, in real life. Except I suspect, purely from its conduct in seeming to provoke the conflict, that Georgia evidences the signs of small man / fox terrier syndrome which results in it picking fights it has no chance of winning just because that’s its nature.

Frankly, I think the worst thing about the whole exercise is that the poor bastards who have to endure it are facing worrying signs of a 1990s Yugoslavia type militia reprisal mentality among the Ossetians who threaten to run amok now that the Russian bear is growling behind them to allow them to revenge themselves upon the Georgians.

[Nickdfresh]

@redcoat

Have to be honest, I’m less than impressed with the Georgian government over its handling of the crisis.
The decision by the Georgian government to send its armed forces into South Ossetia region, just after its had agreed a cease-fire with the separatists of the region, while Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces were present was reckless in the extreme.

The Russians were never going to allow a Georgian military attack on a region in which a majority of the population considers itself Russian to succeed.

I agree. In fact the Georgians negotiated a truce, then launched a massive artillery barrage…