I made a joke In Here some time ago (at least I thought it was a joke) about Putin’s Panzers rolling towards Kiev. Some joke. The Panzers have indeed rolled; along with the rocket batteries, the heavy artillery, the crates of ammo, the night vision equipment … of course, this has Nothing to Do with Russia. Admittedly, east Ukraine is a place that has long been well-supplied with small arms, thanks to the high level of militarization that characterized Soviet society, and there would have been some scope for obtaining heavy equipment by looting Ukrainian Army arsenals and depots but, at the same time, battle tanks and heavy guns do not grow on trees. Neither do crews trained to use heavy weapons. If these did not come from Mother Russia, where did they come from ? Answers on a postcard …
… Meanwhile, back in Yerp, there is a certain irony in seeing Frau Merkel expounding on the “peace plan” developed by herself and by President Hollande of France at the annual European security conference, at Munich. In face of the apparently intractable situation, two possible solutions to a semi-solution seem to be emerging. The US is moving towards the option of supplying “defensive” armaments to the Ukrainians to help them defend their surviving territory. This notion scarcely promises a solution in itself since - unless it means something much more substantial than it says - it appears to ignore the problem of what one does about the large amount of Ukrainian territory already seized by the Little Russian Brothers in east Ukraine, not to mention that “annexed” by Russia itself in the Crimea. Set against this is the Merkel/Hollande Plan. It is not wholly clear what this would involve but, very clearly, it would involve some sort of “conciliated” plan that would necessarily leave a substantial amount of Ukrainian territory (certainly the Crimea) under Russian control, either directly or through the Little Russian Brothers. The US and “EU” approaches are, in effect, mutually contradictory, although not mutually exclusive. While the US government’s precise position is unclear, it does emerge from the comments of “independent” US think-tanks that, over the Pond, many believe that the Merkel/Hollande Plan amounts to appeasement of Russia’s armed aggression on the part of the West. I would not wish to take it too far - but comparisons with the Munich 1938 situation of “mediation” of a dispute in the East on the part of the Western “Powers” certainly invite themselves.
But “EU” Plan ? Er … no. It is fascinating that both the Eurocracy and most of the EU Member States have, at least up to now, been frozen out of this process. It is very much an exclusive German/French initiative - that is, one by the original foundation EEC “Powers”. The EU itself seems to have been relegated to a sort of reserve role, to be brought into play of the Franco-German effort runs into trouble. So much for the alleged collegiality and fraternity still attributed by deluded Europhiles to the EU “project”.
One consequence of this approach that may yet have severe adverse consequences for the EU, just possibly overlooked (or maybe not) by Merkel and Hollande is the deep embarrassment it has caused to the other self-styled “power” in the EU, the United Kingdom. Britain obviously feels humiliated by their exclusion. The unfortunate UK Foreign Secretary was left struggling to explain this situation on a BBC news programme the other day; he was forced to say that the real decisions on this private exercise in Ostpolitik would be made in a forthcoming meeting of the EU Foreign Ministers’ “General Questions” Council. Obvious nonsense; the Foreign Ministers will be lucky if the actual participants give them a general idea of what is going on. Certainly, no decisions of any sort will be made at this level. While Member States in general are probably irked by this example of Franco-German “leadership”, it is a particular problem for Britain, given its perception of itself as a “Power” and the presence of a very strong and persistent anti-EU sentiment in the UK. The humiliation of Prime Minister Cameron and his government is grist to the mill of the strong anti-EU wing of the ruling Conservative Party and of the xenophobe United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). Cameron has promised that if the Conservatives (or a Conservative-led government) is returned to power in May’s General Election, an “in-out” referendum on continued EU membership will be held. This is to follow an attempt to re-negotiate the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU. Since the “terms” that the UK is interested in re-negotiating involve such things as free movement of persons, freedom of employment across the Union and employment protection laws - fundamental pillars of the EU Single Market, apart from anything else - it is difficult to see much being achieved by re-negotiation. Acts by the main “Continental powers” that humiliate and marginalize the UK will be another brick in the platform upon which the “No” campaign in a forthcoming referendum will build.
Perhaps Germany and France, tiring of the UK’s continuously “difficult” attitude to EU business, have decided that they would be better off without the UK unless they pull into line ? Perhaps they are hoping that the next UK government will be led by the Labour Party, which has no commitment to a referendum and has for the most part “tamed” its own anti-European wing ? If this is the way the wind is blowing, it would dismay me, and many others in the Union. The UK Labour Party has a huge leeway to make up on the Tories in terms of seats to win following its defeat in the last General Election. Furthermore, the whole situation has been complicated by the collapse of Labour support in Scotland, promising significant gains by the Scottish National Party at Labour’s expense. It is all too likely that the next government will either be Conservative or Conservative-led. In a worst case scenario (from an EU viewpoint) this Conservative government would be in coalition with the rabidly anti-EU UKIP. In such a scenario the in-out referendum would be very much on the cards, and a British exit from the Union all too likely. Greece leaving the Eurozone ? That would be a mere hiccup compared to the departure of one of the EU’s three major economies from the Union as a whole.
Perhaps those of us who value Britain’s membership of the EU - in spite of its *****ly presence - should pray for the victory of Labour and its highly intelligent but poorly-presenting leader, Ed “Wallace and/or Gromit” Milliband. Interesting times for the “New Europe” in any event …
Yours from the bus-stop on Place Schuman, JR.
